Derby County vs Chelsea analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
9.2%
Win probability
0.65
Expected goals
4-0
<0%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.1%
3-0
0.3%
4-1
0.1%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.4%
2-0
1.2%
3-1
0.6%
4-2
0.1%
+2
1.8%
1-0
3.6%
2-1
2.6%
3-2
0.6%
4-3
0.1%
+1
6.9%
17.1%
Draw
0-0
5.5%
1-1
8.1%
2-2
2.9%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
17.1%
73.8%
Win probability
2.25
Expected goals
0-1
12.4%
1-2
9%
2-3
2.2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
24%
0-2
14%
1-3
6.8%
2-4
1.2%
3-5
0.1%
-2
22.1%
0-3
10.4%
1-4
3.8%
2-5
0.6%
3-6
0%
-3
14.8%
0-4
5.9%
1-5
1.7%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
7.8%
0-5
2.6%
1-6
0.6%
2-7
0.1%
-5
3.3%
0-6
1%
1-7
0.2%
2-8
0%
-6
1.2%
0-7
0.3%
1-8
0.1%
-7
0.4%
0-8
0.1%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Jan. 2014 |
DER
0 - 1
WIG
42%
26%
32%
|
73 | 79 | 6 | 0 |
| 29 Dec. 2013 |
BAR
1 - 2
DER
27%
26%
47%
|
73 | 61 | 12 | 0 |
| 26 Dec. 2013 |
HUR
1 - 1
DER
39%
27%
35%
|
73 | 67 | 6 | 0 |
| 21 Dec. 2013 |
DER
3 - 1
DON
73%
18%
10%
|
73 | 60 | 13 | 0 |
| 14 Dec. 2013 |
CHA
0 - 2
DER
37%
27%
36%
|
72 | 67 | 5 | +1 |
Matches
Chelsea
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Jan. 2014 |
SOU
0 - 3
CHL
16%
21%
63%
|
92 | 82 | 10 | 0 |
| 29 Dec. 2013 |
CHL
2 - 1
LIV
60%
21%
19%
|
92 | 90 | 2 | 0 |
| 26 Dec. 2013 |
CHL
1 - 0
SWA
80%
14%
7%
|
92 | 83 | 9 | 0 |
| 23 Dec. 2013 |
ARS
0 - 0
CHL
43%
24%
33%
|
92 | 92 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 Dec. 2013 |
SUN
2 - 1
CHL
11%
18%
71%
|
93 | 80 | 13 | -1 |