Deportes Tolima vs Fortaleza analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
72.9%
Win probability
2.17
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.9%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.1%
5-0
2.4%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
+5
3%
4-0
5.6%
5-1
1.5%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
7.3%
3-0
10.3%
4-1
3.5%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
14.4%
2-0
14.3%
3-1
6.5%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
22.1%
1-0
13.2%
2-1
9%
3-2
2.1%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.5%
17.7%
Draw
0-0
6.1%
1-1
8.3%
2-2
2.8%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
17.7%
9.4%
Win probability
0.63
Expected goals
0-1
3.8%
1-2
2.6%
2-3
0.6%
3-4
0.1%
-1
7.1%
0-2
1.2%
1-3
0.6%
2-4
0.1%
-2
1.9%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.4%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Deportes Tolima
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Jul. 2009 |
MIL
0 - 2
TOL
50%
26%
25%
|
76 | 77 | 1 | 0 |
| 19 Jul. 2009 |
HUI
1 - 0
TOL
45%
27%
29%
|
76 | 73 | 3 | 0 |
| 12 Jul. 2009 |
TOL
1 - 4
QUI
49%
26%
25%
|
77 | 73 | 4 | -1 |
| 21 Jun. 2009 |
EQU
1 - 0
TOL
51%
26%
24%
|
77 | 80 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 Jun. 2009 |
TOL
1 - 0
CHI
48%
26%
26%
|
77 | 75 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Fortaleza
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jul. 2009 |
TFC
0 - 0
FOR
51%
26%
24%
|
59 | 62 | 3 | 0 |
| 22 Jul. 2009 |
FOR
0 - 0
COR
41%
27%
32%
|
59 | 63 | 4 | 0 |
| 19 Jul. 2009 |
SAB
2 - 2
FOR
46%
27%
27%
|
59 | 60 | 1 | 0 |
| 11 Jul. 2009 |
ACA
4 - 1
FOR
57%
24%
19%
|
60 | 65 | 5 | -1 |
| 05 Jul. 2009 |
BUC
4 - 1
FOR
61%
23%
16%
|
60 | 67 | 7 | 0 |