Conmebol Sudamericana Playoffs. 1/16
Global 2-1
Defensa y Justicia vs CD El Nacional analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
58.5%
Win probability
1.84
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1.1%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.4%
4-0
3%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.1%
3-0
6.4%
4-1
2.8%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
9.7%
2-0
10.5%
3-1
6%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
18%
1-0
11.4%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.6%
22.6%
Draw
0-0
6.2%
1-1
10.7%
2-2
4.6%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
22.6%
19%
Win probability
0.94
Expected goals
0-1
5.8%
1-2
5.1%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
12.6%
0-2
2.7%
1-3
1.6%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4.7%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.3%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Defensa y Justicia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 May. 2018 |
DYJ
1 - 0
MIT
78%
15%
7%
|
80 | 58 | 22 | 0 |
| 12 May. 2018 |
DYJ
2 - 0
ARS
65%
21%
14%
|
80 | 70 | 10 | 0 |
| 05 May. 2018 |
NOB
1 - 0
DYJ
36%
29%
36%
|
80 | 76 | 4 | 0 |
| 28 Apr. 2018 |
DYJ
3 - 1
CEN
41%
25%
34%
|
80 | 82 | 2 | 0 |
| 24 Apr. 2018 |
IND
0 - 1
DYJ
53%
26%
21%
|
79 | 84 | 5 | +1 |
Matches
CD El Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Jul. 2018 |
EME
1 - 0
NAC
52%
25%
24%
|
73 | 77 | 4 | 0 |
| 08 Jul. 2018 |
NAC
0 - 3
DEL
46%
25%
29%
|
74 | 76 | 2 | -1 |
| 01 Jul. 2018 |
NAC
1 - 2
AUC
58%
23%
19%
|
74 | 72 | 2 | 0 |
| 24 Jun. 2018 |
MAC
2 - 0
NAC
38%
27%
35%
|
75 | 73 | 2 | -1 |
| 17 Jun. 2018 |
NAC
2 - 2
BSC
45%
27%
29%
|
75 | 79 | 4 | 0 |