Connah's Quay vs Cardiff MU analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
49.1%
Win probability
1.55
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.7%
4-0
1.8%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.5%
3-0
4.7%
4-1
1.9%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
6.9%
2-0
9%
3-1
4.8%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
14.9%
1-0
11.6%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.9%
25.4%
Draw
0-0
7.5%
1-1
12.1%
2-2
4.9%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.4%
25.5%
Win probability
1.04
Expected goals
0-1
7.8%
1-2
6.3%
2-3
1.7%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
16%
0-2
4.1%
1-3
2.2%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
6.7%
0-3
1.4%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
-3
2.1%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+1%
-3%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
9º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
4
4º
8º
7º
4
7º
11º
10º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
6º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
10 | 41 |
1º
|
33% | |
|
4º
|
7 | 38 |
2º
|
18% | |
|
2º
|
9 | 34 |
3º
|
12.5% | |
|
3º
|
7 | 32 |
4º
|
9.5% | |
|
5º
|
5 | 30 |
5º
|
9% | |
|
11º
|
1 | 30 |
6º
|
11% | |
|
|
9º
|
4 | 30 |
7º
|
8.5% | |
|
7º
|
4 | 29 |
8º
|
6.5% | |
|
10º
|
3 | 28 |
9º
|
11% | |
|
|
6º
|
4 | 27 |
10º
|
12% | |
|
8º
|
4 | 27 |
11º
|
14.5% | |
|
12º
|
0 | 20 |
12º
|
39.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Play-offs for the title
|
43.5% | 36% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
56.5% | 64% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Connah's Quay
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Aug. 2025 |
CON
3 - 2
FLI
40%
24%
36%
|
67 | 67 | 0 | 0 |
| 22 Aug. 2025 |
TNS
3 - 0
CON
58%
21%
21%
|
67 | 67 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 Aug. 2025 |
COL
1 - 1
CON
46%
25%
29%
|
67 | 65 | 2 | 0 |
| 01 Aug. 2025 |
RTW
0 - 9
CON
13%
19%
68%
|
65 | 45 | 20 | +2 |
| 26 Jul. 2025 |
AFC
6 - 1
CON
16%
21%
63%
|
66 | 48 | 18 | -1 |
Matches
Cardiff MU
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Aug. 2025 |
CAR
1 - 1
BAR
45%
25%
30%
|
67 | 67 | 0 | 0 |
| 22 Aug. 2025 |
HAV
2 - 2
CAR
46%
27%
28%
|
67 | 67 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 Aug. 2025 |
BRI
1 - 1
CAR
43%
26%
31%
|
67 | 62 | 5 | 0 |
| 09 Aug. 2025 |
CAR
2 - 2
CAE
42%
25%
33%
|
67 | 67 | 0 | 0 |
| 02 Aug. 2025 |
CAR
4 - 0
PON
73%
16%
10%
|
67 | 54 | 13 | 0 |