Ceilândia vs Capital Brasilia analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
38.6%
Win probability
2.35
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
0.1%
9-3
<0%
+6
0.4%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
1.2%
4-0
1%
5-1
1.2%
6-2
0.6%
7-3
0.2%
8-4
<0%
+4
3%
3-0
1.8%
4-1
2.5%
5-2
1.5%
6-3
0.5%
7-4
0.1%
8-5
<0%
+3
6.3%
2-0
2.2%
3-1
4.3%
4-2
3.1%
5-3
1.2%
6-4
0.3%
7-5
<0%
+2
11.2%
1-0
1.9%
2-1
5.5%
3-2
5.3%
4-3
2.6%
5-4
0.7%
6-5
0.1%
7-6
<0%
+1
16.2%
18.7%
Draw
0-0
0.8%
1-1
4.7%
2-2
6.8%
3-3
4.4%
4-4
1.6%
5-5
0.4%
6-6
0.1%
0
18.7%
42.7%
Win probability
2.46
Expected goals
0-1
2%
1-2
5.8%
2-3
5.6%
3-4
2.7%
4-5
0.8%
5-6
0.2%
6-7
0%
-1
17%
0-2
2.5%
1-3
4.8%
2-4
3.4%
3-5
1.3%
4-6
0.3%
5-7
0.1%
-2
12.4%
0-3
2%
1-4
2.9%
2-5
1.7%
3-6
0.5%
4-7
0.1%
5-8
0%
-3
7.3%
0-4
1.2%
1-5
1.4%
2-6
0.7%
3-7
0.2%
4-8
0%
-4
3.6%
0-5
0.6%
1-6
0.6%
2-7
0.2%
3-8
0.1%
-5
1.5%
0-6
0.3%
1-7
0.2%
2-8
0.1%
3-9
0%
-6
0.6%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0.1%
2-9
0%
-7
0.2%
0-8
0%
1-9
0%
-8
<0%
Points and table prediction
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
13 | 13 |
2º
|
50% | |
|
2º
|
13 | 13 |
1º
|
50% | |
|
3º
|
9 | 9 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
0 | 0 |
4º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
| Champion | 50% | 0% |
| Final season | 50% | 0% |
| Mid-table | 0% | 100% |
ELO progression
CAP
CEI
GAM
BRA
COS
ANA
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ceilândia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO CEI | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Mar. 2022 |
CEI
1 - 0
GAM
46%
27%
27%
|
435 | 468 | -33 | +1 |
| 11 Mar. 2022 |
AVA
1 - 2
CEI
64%
20%
16%
|
414 | 1246 | 832 | +17 |
| 05 Mar. 2022 |
BRA
0 - 0
CEI
46%
27%
26%
|
410 | 460 | 50 | 0 |
| 02 Mar. 2022 |
CEI
2 - 0
LON
37%
28%
35%
|
392 | 765 | -373 | +19 |
| 19 Feb. 2022 |
CEI
5 - 0
PAR
45%
27%
28%
|
391 | 506 | -115 | +1 |
Matches
Capital Brasilia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO CAP | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Mar. 2022 |
CAP
1 - 2
BRA
53%
25%
22%
|
838 | 460 | 378 | -1 |
| 05 Mar. 2022 |
GAM
1 - 2
CAP
37%
28%
35%
|
839 | 467 | -372 | 0 |
| 19 Feb. 2022 |
CAP
0 - 0
BRA
56%
24%
20%
|
840 | 451 | 389 | 0 |
| 16 Feb. 2022 |
CEI
2 - 3
CAP
35%
27%
38%
|
840 | 393 | -447 | 0 |
| 12 Feb. 2022 |
CAP
3 - 1
SED
48%
27%
25%
|
839 | 800 | 39 | +1 |