Castro vs C. Guarnizo analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
74.7%
Win probability
2.34
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.4%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.4%
6-0
1.1%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.4%
5-0
2.9%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
+5
3.7%
4-0
6.1%
5-1
1.9%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
8.3%
3-0
10.5%
4-1
4.1%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
15.3%
2-0
13.5%
3-1
7%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.1%
+2
22.1%
1-0
11.6%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.3%
16.3%
Draw
0-0
4.9%
1-1
7.8%
2-2
3%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
0.1%
0
16.3%
8.9%
Win probability
0.67
Expected goals
0-1
3.3%
1-2
2.6%
2-3
0.7%
3-4
0.1%
-1
6.7%
0-2
1.1%
1-3
0.6%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
1.8%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.4%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Castro
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Nov. 2008 |
CAS
2 - 0
CDD
54%
23%
23%
|
20 | 19 | 1 | 0 |
| 09 Nov. 2008 |
REO
0 - 0
CAS
73%
17%
10%
|
20 | 33 | 13 | 0 |
| 08 Nov. 2008 |
SPO
2 - 0
CAS
33%
25%
42%
|
21 | 18 | 3 | -1 |
| 02 Nov. 2008 |
CAS
2 - 2
RVI
27%
25%
49%
|
21 | 29 | 8 | 0 |
| 02 Nov. 2008 |
CAS
1 - 0
SAN
52%
25%
23%
|
21 | 20 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
C. Guarnizo
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Nov. 2008 |
CGU
2 - 1
RIB
15%
21%
64%
|
10 | 21 | 11 | 0 |
| 02 Nov. 2008 |
CGU
0 - 2
VEL
15%
21%
63%
|
11 | 22 | 11 | -1 |
| 25 Oct. 2008 |
REO
3 - 0
CGU
83%
12%
5%
|
11 | 32 | 21 | 0 |
| 18 Oct. 2008 |
CGU
0 - 0
SAN
17%
23%
61%
|
11 | 21 | 10 | 0 |
| 12 Oct. 2008 |
GIM
2 - 1
CGU
85%
11%
4%
|
11 | 48 | 37 | 0 |