Caernarfon Town FC vs Newtown analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
43.4%
Win probability
1.66
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.7%
4-0
1.5%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.3%
3-0
3.5%
4-1
2.1%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
6.1%
2-0
6.4%
3-1
5%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
13.1%
1-0
7.7%
2-1
9%
3-2
3.5%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
21%
23.8%
Draw
0-0
4.7%
1-1
10.9%
2-2
6.4%
3-3
1.7%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
23.8%
32.8%
Win probability
1.41
Expected goals
0-1
6.6%
1-2
7.7%
2-3
3%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
17.9%
0-2
4.6%
1-3
3.6%
2-4
1.1%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
9.5%
0-3
2.2%
1-4
1.3%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
3.8%
0-4
0.8%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.2%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-11%
-22%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
41
2º
5º
5º
44
4º
6º
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
4º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
92 | 30 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
51 | 14 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
59 | 12 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
|
4º
|
44 | 11 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
|
5º
|
41 | 10 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
39 | 5 |
6º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champions League qualifying phase (1st r
|
0% | 0% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
0% | 0% |
|
Play-offs
|
100% | 100% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Caernarfon Town FC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Feb. 2024 |
CAE
1 - 8
TNS
37%
24%
38%
|
61 | 66 | 5 | 0 |
| 10 Feb. 2024 |
CAR
2 - 2
CAE
50%
24%
26%
|
61 | 66 | 5 | 0 |
| 02 Feb. 2024 |
CON
1 - 1
CAE
54%
23%
23%
|
60 | 67 | 7 | +1 |
| 13 Jan. 2024 |
CAR
2 - 2
CAE
52%
24%
24%
|
60 | 66 | 6 | 0 |
| 31 Dec. 2023 |
CAE
2 - 1
COL
62%
20%
18%
|
59 | 54 | 5 | +1 |
Matches
Newtown
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Feb. 2024 |
NEW
1 - 5
BAL
42%
25%
33%
|
64 | 66 | 2 | 0 |
| 10 Feb. 2024 |
NEW
2 - 3
CON
44%
26%
30%
|
64 | 66 | 2 | 0 |
| 06 Feb. 2024 |
TNS
3 - 0
NEW
63%
19%
18%
|
65 | 67 | 2 | -1 |
| 13 Jan. 2024 |
TNS
3 - 1
NEW
62%
19%
19%
|
65 | 66 | 1 | 0 |
| 06 Jan. 2024 |
BAR
4 - 0
NEW
18%
22%
59%
|
67 | 53 | 14 | -2 |