Benfica vs Nacional analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
71%
Win probability
2.27
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.4%
6-0
0.9%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.2%
5-0
2.4%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
+5
3.2%
4-0
5.2%
5-1
1.9%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
7.4%
3-0
9.2%
4-1
4.1%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
14.1%
2-0
12.2%
3-1
7.2%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.2%
1-0
10.8%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.5%
17.7%
Draw
0-0
4.7%
1-1
8.4%
2-2
3.7%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
17.7%
11.3%
Win probability
0.78
Expected goals
0-1
3.7%
1-2
3.3%
2-3
1%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
8.1%
0-2
1.4%
1-3
0.9%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
2.5%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.6%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+7%
+15%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Benfica
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Dec. 2015 |
SLB
3 - 1
RIO
69%
19%
12%
|
86 | 79 | 7 | 0 |
| 15 Dec. 2015 |
UNM
0 - 0
SLB
14%
23%
63%
|
86 | 65 | 21 | 0 |
| 12 Dec. 2015 |
VST
2 - 4
SLB
26%
25%
49%
|
86 | 78 | 8 | 0 |
| 08 Dec. 2015 |
SLB
1 - 2
ATM
34%
26%
40%
|
86 | 91 | 5 | 0 |
| 04 Dec. 2015 |
SLB
3 - 0
ACA
79%
14%
6%
|
86 | 68 | 18 | 0 |
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Dec. 2015 |
MOR
2 - 0
NAC
30%
28%
43%
|
79 | 72 | 7 | 0 |
| 16 Dec. 2015 |
AVE
2 - 2
NAC
17%
23%
60%
|
79 | 60 | 19 | 0 |
| 14 Dec. 2015 |
NAC
1 - 2
FCP
21%
24%
55%
|
79 | 88 | 9 | 0 |
| 06 Dec. 2015 |
EST
1 - 1
NAC
49%
25%
26%
|
79 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 27 Nov. 2015 |
NAC
3 - 1
MAR
46%
26%
28%
|
79 | 78 | 1 | 0 |