Bashley vs Horndean analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
11.5%
Win probability
0.86
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.1%
3-0
0.4%
4-1
0.2%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.7%
2-0
1.4%
3-1
1%
4-2
0.3%
5-3
<0%
+2
2.7%
1-0
3.2%
2-1
3.4%
3-2
1.2%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
8%
16.7%
Draw
0-0
3.7%
1-1
7.8%
2-2
4.1%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
16.7%
71.8%
Win probability
2.43
Expected goals
0-1
9%
1-2
9.5%
2-3
3.3%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
22.5%
0-2
11%
1-3
7.7%
2-4
2%
3-5
0.3%
4-6
0%
-2
20.9%
0-3
8.9%
1-4
4.6%
2-5
1%
3-6
0.1%
-3
14.6%
0-4
5.4%
1-5
2.3%
2-6
0.4%
3-7
0%
-4
8.1%
0-5
2.6%
1-6
0.9%
2-7
0.1%
3-8
0%
-5
3.7%
0-6
1.1%
1-7
0.3%
2-8
0%
-6
1.4%
0-7
0.4%
1-8
0.1%
2-9
0%
-7
0.5%
0-8
0.1%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Bashley
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Apr. 2016 |
NOR
4 - 1
BAS
90%
8%
3%
|
7 | 28 | 21 | 0 |
| 16 Apr. 2016 |
BAS
0 - 2
BUR
33%
24%
43%
|
7 | 11 | 4 | 0 |
| 09 Apr. 2016 |
TIV
9 - 0
BAS
85%
11%
4%
|
7 | 34 | 27 | 0 |
| 02 Apr. 2016 |
BAS
2 - 5
MAR
6%
14%
80%
|
7 | 27 | 20 | 0 |
| 28 Mar. 2016 |
BAS
0 - 3
WIN
5%
12%
83%
|
8 | 37 | 29 | -1 |
Matches
Horndean
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Aug. 2015 |
HOR
1 - 3
SHO
64%
20%
17%
|
28 | 23 | 5 | 0 |
| 13 Sep. 2014 |
HOR
0 - 1
NEW
81%
13%
7%
|
29 | 11 | 18 | -1 |
| 14 Sep. 2013 |
HOR
0 - 5
AFC
43%
23%
34%
|
31 | 35 | 4 | -2 |
| 31 Aug. 2013 |
PET
1 - 2
HOR
27%
23%
50%
|
30 | 20 | 10 | +1 |
| 17 Aug. 2013 |
HOR
7 - 2
CAL
79%
14%
7%
|
30 | 9 | 21 | 0 |