Basel vs Luzern analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
66.3%
Win probability
2.34
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.8%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.1%
5-0
2%
6-1
0.8%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.9%
4-0
4.2%
5-1
2.1%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.8%
3-0
7.2%
4-1
4.4%
5-2
1.1%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
12.9%
2-0
9.3%
3-1
7.6%
4-2
2.3%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.6%
1-0
7.9%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
3.9%
4-3
0.8%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.5%
18.3%
Draw
0-0
3.4%
1-1
8.3%
2-2
5.1%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
18.3%
15.4%
Win probability
1.04
Expected goals
0-1
3.5%
1-2
4.3%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
10%
0-2
1.8%
1-3
1.5%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
3.9%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.1%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Basel
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 May. 2012 |
BAS
6 - 3
GCZ
73%
17%
10%
|
84 | 70 | 14 | 0 |
| 06 May. 2012 |
ZUR
1 - 5
BAS
28%
25%
48%
|
84 | 79 | 5 | 0 |
| 02 May. 2012 |
BAS
2 - 1
THU
74%
16%
9%
|
84 | 72 | 12 | 0 |
| 29 Apr. 2012 |
BAS
3 - 1
LAU
78%
15%
7%
|
84 | 64 | 20 | 0 |
| 22 Apr. 2012 |
SIO
0 - 3
BAS
25%
25%
50%
|
84 | 79 | 5 | 0 |
Matches
Luzern
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 May. 2012 |
FCL
3 - 2
LAU
67%
20%
14%
|
79 | 65 | 14 | 0 |
| 05 May. 2012 |
YOB
2 - 2
FCL
59%
22%
20%
|
79 | 82 | 3 | 0 |
| 28 Apr. 2012 |
GCZ
2 - 2
FCL
32%
27%
41%
|
79 | 72 | 7 | 0 |
| 21 Apr. 2012 |
FCL
3 - 1
SER
66%
20%
14%
|
79 | 67 | 12 | 0 |
| 15 Apr. 2012 |
ZUR
0 - 0
FCL
45%
26%
29%
|
79 | 79 | 0 | 0 |