Supercopa . Final
Global 5-4Barcelona vs Real Madrid analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
50.3%
Win probability
2.03
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.4%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
1.4%
4-0
2.1%
5-1
1.3%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.7%
3-0
4.1%
4-1
3.1%
5-2
0.9%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
8.4%
2-0
6.1%
3-1
6.2%
4-2
2.3%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
15.1%
1-0
6%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
4.6%
4-3
1.1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.1%
21.5%
Draw
0-0
3%
1-1
9%
2-2
6.8%
3-3
2.3%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
0.1%
0
21.5%
28.3%
Win probability
1.49
Expected goals
0-1
4.4%
1-2
6.7%
2-3
3.3%
3-4
0.8%
4-5
0.1%
5-6
0%
-1
15.4%
0-2
3.3%
1-3
3.3%
2-4
1.2%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
8.1%
0-3
1.6%
1-4
1.2%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0.1%
-3
3.3%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
1.1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-1%
+2%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Barcelona
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Aug. 2011 |
RMA
2 - 2
FCB
44%
22%
35%
|
96 | 95 | 1 | 0 |
| 09 Aug. 2011 |
FCB
0 - 3
ESP
85%
11%
4%
|
96 | 83 | 13 | 0 |
| 06 Aug. 2011 |
AME
0 - 2
FCB
3%
12%
85%
|
96 | 7 | 89 | 0 |
| 04 Aug. 2011 |
CHI
4 - 1
FCB
10%
19%
71%
|
96 | 70 | 26 | 0 |
| 31 Jul. 2011 |
MUD
2 - 1
FCB
43%
25%
33%
|
97 | 95 | 2 | -1 |
Matches
Real Madrid
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Aug. 2011 |
RMA
2 - 2
FCB
44%
22%
35%
|
95 | 96 | 1 | 0 |
| 06 Aug. 2011 |
TIT
0 - 6
RMA
11%
19%
70%
|
95 | 75 | 20 | 0 |
| 03 Aug. 2011 |
GUA
1 - 7
RMA
16%
21%
63%
|
95 | 77 | 18 | 0 |
| 30 Jul. 2011 |
LEI
1 - 2
RMA
12%
20%
68%
|
95 | 73 | 22 | 0 |
| 27 Jul. 2011 |
HER
1 - 3
RMA
13%
21%
65%
|
95 | 81 | 14 | 0 |