AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
38%
Win probability
1.58
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.5%
4-0
1.1%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
1.8%
3-0
2.8%
4-1
1.7%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
0.1%
+3
5%
2-0
5.2%
3-1
4.4%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
11.3%
1-0
6.6%
2-1
8.3%
3-2
3.5%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
19.2%
23.5%
Draw
0-0
4.2%
1-1
10.5%
2-2
6.6%
3-3
1.9%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
23.5%
38.5%
Win probability
1.6
Expected goals
0-1
6.6%
1-2
8.4%
2-3
3.5%
3-4
0.7%
4-5
0.1%
-1
19.4%
0-2
5.3%
1-3
4.5%
2-4
1.4%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
11.4%
0-3
2.8%
1-4
1.8%
2-5
0.5%
3-6
0.1%
-3
5.1%
0-4
1.1%
1-5
0.6%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
1.8%
0-5
0.4%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.5%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+9%
+5%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
65
1º
4º
4º
56
2º
10º
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
5º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
91 | 91 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
84 | 84 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
69 | 69 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
|
4º
|
65 | 65 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
|
5º
|
56 | 56 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
53 | 53 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
50 | 50 |
7º
|
100% | |
|
8º
|
49 | 49 |
8º
|
100% | |
|
9º
|
46 | 46 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
38 | 38 |
10º
|
100% | |
|
11º
|
37 | 37 |
11º
|
100% | |
|
12º
|
36 | 36 |
12º
|
100% | |
|
13º
|
34 | 34 |
13º
|
100% | |
|
14º
|
33 | 33 |
14º
|
100% | |
|
15º
|
29 | 29 |
15º
|
0% | |
|
16º
|
29 | 29 |
16º
|
0% | |
|
18º
|
6 | 24 |
17º
|
100% | |
|
17º
|
19 | 19 |
18º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Champions League
|
0% | 0% |
|
Champions League qualifying phase
|
0% | 0% |
|
Europa League
|
100% | 0% |
|
Europa League qualifying phase
|
0% | 100% |
|
Play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
AZ Alkmaar
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Feb. 2024 |
FOR
1 - 2
AZA
19%
23%
58%
|
89 | 73 | 16 | 0 |
| 10 Feb. 2024 |
ALM
0 - 0
AZA
16%
23%
61%
|
89 | 73 | 16 | 0 |
| 07 Feb. 2024 |
FEY
2 - 0
AZA
47%
24%
29%
|
89 | 89 | 0 | 0 |
| 04 Feb. 2024 |
AZA
0 - 1
FEY
41%
24%
35%
|
89 | 89 | 0 | 0 |
| 28 Jan. 2024 |
SCH
2 - 2
AZA
19%
24%
57%
|
89 | 76 | 13 | 0 |
Matches
Ajax
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Feb. 2024 |
BOG
1 - 2
AJA
30%
22%
49%
|
89 | 85 | 4 | 0 |
| 18 Feb. 2024 |
AJA
2 - 2
NEC
68%
18%
14%
|
89 | 81 | 8 | 0 |
| 15 Feb. 2024 |
AJA
2 - 2
BOG
59%
20%
21%
|
88 | 85 | 3 | +1 |
| 11 Feb. 2024 |
SCH
3 - 2
AJA
15%
19%
66%
|
89 | 77 | 12 | -1 |
| 03 Feb. 2024 |
AJA
1 - 1
PSV
46%
23%
31%
|
89 | 89 | 0 | 0 |