Atlético vs Real Madrid analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
20.8%
Win probability
0.95
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.2%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.3%
3-0
1%
4-1
0.4%
5-2
0.1%
+3
1.5%
2-0
3.1%
3-1
1.7%
4-2
0.3%
5-3
<0%
+2
5.2%
1-0
6.6%
2-1
5.4%
3-2
1.5%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
13.7%
23.8%
Draw
0-0
7%
1-1
11.3%
2-2
4.6%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.8%
55.4%
Win probability
1.72
Expected goals
0-1
11.9%
1-2
9.7%
2-3
2.6%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
24.7%
0-2
10.2%
1-3
5.6%
2-4
1.1%
3-5
0.1%
-2
17%
0-3
5.8%
1-4
2.4%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
8.7%
0-4
2.5%
1-5
0.8%
2-6
0.1%
-4
3.4%
0-5
0.9%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
1.1%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0.1%
-6
0.3%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-5%
+2%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Atlético
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Mar. 2011 |
ALM
2 - 2
ATM
36%
26%
38%
|
86 | 82 | 4 | 0 |
| 05 Mar. 2011 |
ATM
3 - 1
VIL
43%
25%
32%
|
86 | 88 | 2 | 0 |
| 02 Mar. 2011 |
GET
1 - 1
ATM
44%
25%
31%
|
86 | 85 | 1 | 0 |
| 26 Feb. 2011 |
ATM
2 - 2
SEV
40%
24%
36%
|
86 | 88 | 2 | 0 |
| 19 Feb. 2011 |
ZAR
0 - 1
ATM
41%
25%
34%
|
86 | 83 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Real Madrid
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Mar. 2011 |
RMA
3 - 0
LYO
73%
16%
11%
|
94 | 89 | 5 | 0 |
| 12 Mar. 2011 |
RMA
2 - 0
HER
91%
7%
2%
|
94 | 78 | 16 | 0 |
| 06 Mar. 2011 |
RAC
1 - 3
RMA
15%
23%
63%
|
94 | 83 | 11 | 0 |
| 03 Mar. 2011 |
RMA
7 - 0
MAL
89%
8%
3%
|
94 | 81 | 13 | 0 |
| 26 Feb. 2011 |
DEP
0 - 0
RMA
13%
22%
65%
|
95 | 83 | 12 | -1 |