Atlético vs Real Madrid analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
37.5%
Win probability
1.46
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.4%
4-0
1%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.5%
3-0
2.8%
4-1
1.5%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.6%
2-0
5.7%
3-1
4.1%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
11%
1-0
7.8%
2-1
8.4%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
19.7%
24.6%
Draw
0-0
5.3%
1-1
11.4%
2-2
6.2%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.6%
37.9%
Win probability
1.47
Expected goals
0-1
7.8%
1-2
8.4%
2-3
3%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
19.9%
0-2
5.8%
1-3
4.1%
2-4
1.1%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
11.2%
0-3
2.8%
1-4
1.5%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
4.7%
0-4
1%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.6%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.4%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-4%
+4%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Atlético
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Nov. 2009 |
ATM
2 - 2
CHL
28%
26%
47%
|
88 | 97 | 9 | 0 |
| 31 Oct. 2009 |
ATH
1 - 0
ATM
35%
26%
40%
|
89 | 84 | 5 | -1 |
| 27 Oct. 2009 |
MAR
0 - 2
ATM
12%
20%
68%
|
89 | 54 | 35 | 0 |
| 24 Oct. 2009 |
ATM
1 - 1
MLL
54%
23%
23%
|
89 | 89 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 Oct. 2009 |
CHL
4 - 0
ATM
67%
20%
12%
|
89 | 96 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
Real Madrid
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Nov. 2009 |
ACM
1 - 1
RMA
36%
26%
38%
|
92 | 89 | 3 | 0 |
| 31 Oct. 2009 |
RMA
2 - 0
GET
76%
15%
9%
|
92 | 87 | 5 | 0 |
| 27 Oct. 2009 |
ALC
4 - 0
RMA
13%
21%
66%
|
93 | 57 | 36 | -1 |
| 24 Oct. 2009 |
SPO
0 - 0
RMA
18%
22%
60%
|
93 | 81 | 12 | 0 |
| 21 Oct. 2009 |
RMA
2 - 3
ACM
73%
16%
11%
|
93 | 89 | 4 | 0 |