Aston Villa vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
52%
Win probability
1.58
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.8%
4-0
2.1%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.8%
3-0
5.2%
4-1
1.9%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
7.5%
2-0
10%
3-1
5%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
15.9%
1-0
12.7%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.7%
25.3%
Draw
0-0
8%
1-1
12%
2-2
4.5%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.3%
22.7%
Win probability
0.95
Expected goals
0-1
7.6%
1-2
5.7%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
14.9%
0-2
3.6%
1-3
1.8%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
5.7%
0-3
1.1%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.6%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-4%
+8%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Aston Villa
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Apr. 2018 |
IPS
0 - 4
ASV
30%
29%
41%
|
73 | 63 | 10 | 0 |
| 13 Apr. 2018 |
ASV
1 - 0
LEE
59%
23%
18%
|
72 | 64 | 8 | +1 |
| 10 Apr. 2018 |
ASV
1 - 0
CAR
44%
27%
30%
|
72 | 73 | 1 | 0 |
| 07 Apr. 2018 |
NOR
3 - 1
ASV
47%
26%
27%
|
72 | 70 | 2 | 0 |
| 03 Apr. 2018 |
ASV
3 - 0
REA
61%
22%
17%
|
72 | 62 | 10 | 0 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Apr. 2018 |
DER
3 - 1
CAR
40%
27%
33%
|
70 | 74 | 4 | 0 |
| 21 Apr. 2018 |
DER
1 - 2
MID
42%
27%
31%
|
70 | 73 | 3 | 0 |
| 14 Apr. 2018 |
BUR
3 - 1
DER
21%
26%
53%
|
71 | 54 | 17 | -1 |
| 11 Apr. 2018 |
WOL
2 - 0
DER
56%
24%
20%
|
72 | 76 | 4 | -1 |
| 07 Apr. 2018 |
DER
3 - 0
BOL
66%
21%
13%
|
71 | 59 | 12 | +1 |