ARC Alphense vs JOS Watergraafsmeer analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
38.7%
Win probability
1.57
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.5%
4-0
1.1%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
1.8%
3-0
2.9%
4-1
1.7%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
0.1%
+3
5.1%
2-0
5.5%
3-1
4.4%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
11.5%
1-0
7%
2-1
8.5%
3-2
3.4%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
19.6%
23.8%
Draw
0-0
4.5%
1-1
10.8%
2-2
6.5%
3-3
1.8%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
23.8%
37.5%
Win probability
1.54
Expected goals
0-1
6.9%
1-2
8.3%
2-3
3.4%
3-4
0.7%
4-5
0.1%
-1
19.3%
0-2
5.3%
1-3
4.3%
2-4
1.3%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
11.1%
0-3
2.7%
1-4
1.6%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0.1%
-3
4.8%
0-4
1%
1-5
0.5%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
1.7%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.5%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-40%
-5%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
14º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
28
2º
15º
15º
51
2º
7º
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
4º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
58 | 62 |
1º
|
91% | |
|
2º
|
54 | 57 |
2º
|
45.5% | |
|
3º
|
53 | 56 |
3º
|
36.5% | |
|
|
4º
|
51 | 55 |
4º
|
47% | |
|
5º
|
48 | 51 |
5º
|
76% | |
|
6º
|
43 | 46 |
6º
|
43.5% | |
|
7º
|
41 | 45 |
7º
|
39% | |
|
8º
|
40 | 43 |
8º
|
66.5% | |
|
9º
|
37 | 40 |
9º
|
56.5% | |
|
10º
|
34 | 37 |
10º
|
33.5% | |
|
11º
|
34 | 37 |
11º
|
37.5% | |
|
12º
|
33 | 36 |
12º
|
52.5% | |
|
13º
|
29 | 32 |
13º
|
57.5% | |
|
15º
|
27 | 30 |
14º
|
40.5% | |
|
|
14º
|
28 | 29 |
15º
|
43% | |
|
16º
|
20 | 21 |
16º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 97% |
|
Mid-table
|
0.5% | 3% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
56.5% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
43% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
ARC Alphense
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Sep. 2023 |
AFC
0 - 1
ARC
34%
21%
44%
|
38 | 34 | 4 | 0 |
| 16 Sep. 2023 |
TER
3 - 0
ARC
34%
24%
42%
|
40 | 36 | 4 | -2 |
| 09 Sep. 2023 |
ARC
2 - 4
PUR
45%
25%
31%
|
42 | 42 | 0 | -2 |
| 02 Sep. 2023 |
SVH
3 - 1
ARC
24%
23%
53%
|
43 | 33 | 10 | -1 |
| 26 Aug. 2023 |
ARC
2 - 0
BOL
71%
18%
12%
|
43 | 32 | 11 | 0 |
Matches
JOS Watergraafsmeer
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Sep. 2023 |
JOS
1 - 1
PUR
45%
24%
31%
|
41 | 43 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 Sep. 2023 |
SVH
3 - 4
JOS
38%
24%
38%
|
40 | 37 | 3 | +1 |
| 09 Sep. 2023 |
JOS
4 - 1
BOL
76%
14%
10%
|
39 | 30 | 9 | +1 |
| 26 Aug. 2023 |
JOS
2 - 0
HED
57%
22%
22%
|
38 | 36 | 2 | +1 |
| 18 Jun. 2023 |
JOS
4 - 3
BAR
44%
24%
33%
|
37 | 39 | 2 | +1 |