Alianza Lima vs Nacional analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
33.6%
Win probability
1.2
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.2%
4-0
0.7%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.9%
3-0
2.3%
4-1
0.9%
5-2
0.1%
6-3
<0%
+3
3.4%
2-0
5.7%
3-1
3.1%
4-2
0.6%
5-3
0.1%
+2
9.5%
1-0
9.5%
2-1
7.6%
3-2
2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
19.5%
26.7%
Draw
0-0
7.9%
1-1
12.7%
2-2
5.1%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.7%
39.7%
Win probability
1.33
Expected goals
0-1
10.5%
1-2
8.5%
2-3
2.3%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
21.6%
0-2
7%
1-3
3.8%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
11.6%
0-3
3.1%
1-4
1.3%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
4.6%
0-4
1%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
1.4%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.4%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Alianza Lima
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Mar. 2000 |
ATP
2 - 1
ALI
80%
13%
7%
|
65 | 80 | 15 | 0 |
| 08 Mar. 2000 |
NAC
2 - 0
ALI
70%
19%
11%
|
66 | 76 | 10 | -1 |
| 29 Feb. 2000 |
ALI
2 - 1
EME
45%
26%
29%
|
65 | 69 | 4 | +1 |
| 16 Feb. 2000 |
ALI
0 - 3
ATP
30%
23%
47%
|
66 | 79 | 13 | -1 |
| 29 Apr. 1998 |
PEÑ
2 - 1
ALI
68%
20%
12%
|
67 | 77 | 10 | -1 |
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Mar. 2000 |
NAC
1 - 0
EME
66%
21%
14%
|
75 | 68 | 7 | 0 |
| 15 Mar. 2000 |
NAC
1 - 3
ATP
42%
25%
33%
|
76 | 79 | 3 | -1 |
| 08 Mar. 2000 |
NAC
2 - 0
ALI
70%
19%
11%
|
76 | 66 | 10 | 0 |
| 23 Feb. 2000 |
EME
0 - 2
NAC
44%
26%
31%
|
75 | 70 | 5 | +1 |
| 21 Apr. 1999 |
NAC
2 - 1
CCP
44%
26%
31%
|
74 | 79 | 5 | +1 |