CAF Champions . Final
Global 3-4
Al-Ahly vs ES Tunis analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
58.5%
Win probability
1.84
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1.1%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.4%
4-0
3%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.1%
3-0
6.4%
4-1
2.8%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
9.8%
2-0
10.5%
3-1
6.1%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
18%
1-0
11.4%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.6%
22.6%
Draw
0-0
6.2%
1-1
10.7%
2-2
4.6%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
22.6%
18.9%
Win probability
0.94
Expected goals
0-1
5.8%
1-2
5%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
12.6%
0-2
2.7%
1-3
1.6%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4.7%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.3%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Al-Ahly
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Oct. 2018 |
ALA
2 - 2
WAS
67%
19%
13%
|
82 | 70 | 12 | 0 |
| 23 Oct. 2018 |
SET
2 - 1
ALA
36%
27%
37%
|
83 | 74 | 9 | -1 |
| 10 Oct. 2018 |
ALA
3 - 2
ALT
88%
9%
4%
|
83 | 60 | 23 | 0 |
| 07 Oct. 2018 |
ALA
3 - 4
ALI
72%
18%
10%
|
83 | 69 | 14 | 0 |
| 02 Oct. 2018 |
ALA
2 - 0
SET
70%
19%
11%
|
84 | 75 | 9 | -1 |
Matches
ES Tunis
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Oct. 2018 |
CSH
0 - 2
ESP
10%
25%
64%
|
81 | 57 | 24 | 0 |
| 23 Oct. 2018 |
ESP
4 - 2
PRI
62%
22%
17%
|
81 | 74 | 7 | 0 |
| 07 Oct. 2018 |
CSS
2 - 0
ESP
44%
27%
29%
|
81 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 02 Oct. 2018 |
PRI
1 - 0
ESP
27%
29%
44%
|
83 | 73 | 10 | -2 |
| 26 Sep. 2018 |
ESP
1 - 1
STA
80%
14%
6%
|
83 | 65 | 18 | 0 |