Ajax vs Heracles analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
71.9%
Win probability
2.47
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.4%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.5%
6-0
1.1%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.5%
5-0
2.6%
6-1
1%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
3.8%
4-0
5.4%
5-1
2.4%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
8.2%
3-0
8.7%
4-1
4.8%
5-2
1%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
14.7%
2-0
10.6%
3-1
7.8%
4-2
2.1%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.8%
1-0
8.6%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
3.5%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.2%
16.5%
Draw
0-0
3.5%
1-1
7.7%
2-2
4.2%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
16.5%
11.6%
Win probability
0.89
Expected goals
0-1
3.1%
1-2
3.4%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
8%
0-2
1.4%
1-3
1%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
2.7%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.7%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+5%
+3%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
56
2º
10º
5º
33
7º
16º
14º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
14º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
91 | 91 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
84 | 84 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
69 | 69 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
65 | 65 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
|
5º
|
56 | 56 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
53 | 53 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
50 | 50 |
7º
|
100% | |
|
8º
|
49 | 49 |
8º
|
100% | |
|
9º
|
46 | 46 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
38 | 38 |
10º
|
100% | |
|
11º
|
37 | 37 |
11º
|
100% | |
|
12º
|
36 | 36 |
12º
|
100% | |
|
13º
|
34 | 34 |
13º
|
100% | |
|
|
14º
|
33 | 33 |
14º
|
100% | |
|
15º
|
29 | 29 |
15º
|
0% | |
|
16º
|
29 | 29 |
16º
|
0% | |
|
18º
|
6 | 24 |
17º
|
100% | |
|
17º
|
19 | 19 |
18º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Champions League
|
0% | 0% |
|
Champions League qualifying phase
|
0% | 0% |
|
Europa League
|
0% | 0% |
|
Europa League qualifying phase
|
100% | 0% |
|
Play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 100% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ajax
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Aug. 2023 |
BVB
3 - 1
AJA
63%
19%
18%
|
88 | 91 | 3 | 0 |
| 29 Jul. 2023 |
AUG
3 - 1
AJA
16%
20%
65%
|
88 | 79 | 9 | 0 |
| 22 Jul. 2023 |
AND
3 - 0
AJA
20%
22%
58%
|
88 | 82 | 6 | 0 |
| 18 Jul. 2023 |
AJA
3 - 0
SHA
60%
20%
20%
|
88 | 85 | 3 | 0 |
| 08 Jul. 2023 |
AJA
2 - 2
BOS
85%
10%
5%
|
88 | 54 | 34 | 0 |
Matches
Heracles
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Aug. 2023 |
HER
1 - 3
VOL
59%
20%
20%
|
77 | 70 | 7 | 0 |
| 05 Aug. 2023 |
HER
2 - 0
HEL
80%
13%
7%
|
77 | 58 | 19 | 0 |
| 28 Jul. 2023 |
HER
2 - 1
EXC
67%
18%
15%
|
77 | 66 | 11 | 0 |
| 25 Jul. 2023 |
HER
1 - 0
FCE
58%
21%
21%
|
77 | 71 | 6 | 0 |
| 22 Jul. 2023 |
BVO
4 - 1
HER
25%
22%
54%
|
77 | 66 | 11 | 0 |