Ajax vs Heracles analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
78.5%
Win probability
3.17
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.2%
8-0
0.4%
9-1
0.1%
10-2
<0%
+8
0.5%
7-0
0.9%
8-1
0.4%
9-2
0.1%
+7
1.4%
6-0
2%
7-1
1%
8-2
0.2%
9-3
<0%
+6
3.3%
5-0
3.9%
6-1
2.2%
7-2
0.5%
8-3
0.1%
+5
6.6%
4-0
6.1%
5-1
4.1%
6-2
1.2%
7-3
0.2%
8-4
<0%
+4
11.6%
3-0
7.7%
4-1
6.5%
5-2
2.2%
6-3
0.4%
7-4
<0%
+3
16.8%
2-0
7.3%
3-1
8.2%
4-2
3.4%
5-3
0.8%
6-4
0.1%
7-5
<0%
+2
19.8%
1-0
4.6%
2-1
7.8%
3-2
4.3%
4-3
1.2%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
18.1%
12.4%
Draw
0-0
1.5%
1-1
4.9%
2-2
4.1%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
12.4%
9.1%
Win probability
1.06
Expected goals
0-1
1.5%
1-2
2.6%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0.1%
-1
6.1%
0-2
0.8%
1-3
0.9%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
2.2%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
0.6%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+5%
+9%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ajax
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 May. 1962 |
SPA
4 - 0
AJA
35%
23%
42%
|
84 | 78 | 6 | 0 |
| 13 May. 1962 |
AJA
2 - 2
RJC
85%
9%
5%
|
84 | 67 | 17 | 0 |
| 06 May. 1962 |
DVO
3 - 1
AJA
25%
20%
55%
|
84 | 72 | 12 | 0 |
| 23 Apr. 1962 |
AJA
1 - 2
ADO
74%
15%
12%
|
85 | 71 | 14 | -1 |
| 21 Apr. 1962 |
VVV
1 - 0
AJA
24%
21%
55%
|
85 | 72 | 13 | 0 |