Ajax vs Twente analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
73.3%
Win probability
2.54
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.4%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.6%
6-0
1.2%
7-1
0.4%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1.7%
5-0
2.9%
6-1
1.1%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
4.1%
4-0
5.7%
5-1
2.5%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
+4
8.7%
3-0
8.9%
4-1
5%
5-2
1.1%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
15.2%
2-0
10.6%
3-1
7.9%
4-2
2.2%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
21%
1-0
8.3%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
3.5%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
21.8%
15.8%
Draw
0-0
3.3%
1-1
7.3%
2-2
4.1%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
15.8%
10.8%
Win probability
0.88
Expected goals
0-1
2.9%
1-2
3.2%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
7.5%
0-2
1.3%
1-3
0.9%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
2.5%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.6%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+3%
-5%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
3º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
69
1º
5º
3º
64
2º
6º
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
5º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
82 | 82 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
75 | 75 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
|
3º
|
69 | 69 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
67 | 67 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
|
5º
|
64 | 64 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
59 | 59 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
54 | 54 |
7º
|
100% | |
|
8º
|
46 | 46 |
8º
|
100% | |
|
9º
|
41 | 41 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
40 | 40 |
10º
|
100% | |
|
11º
|
40 | 40 |
11º
|
100% | |
|
12º
|
39 | 39 |
12º
|
100% | |
|
13º
|
36 | 36 |
13º
|
0% | |
|
14º
|
36 | 36 |
14º
|
0% | |
|
15º
|
32 | 32 |
15º
|
100% | |
|
16º
|
28 | 28 |
16º
|
100% | |
|
17º
|
19 | 19 |
17º
|
100% | |
|
18º
|
18 | 18 |
18º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champions League
|
0% | 0% |
|
Champions League qualifying phase
|
0% | 0% |
|
Europa League qualifying phase
|
100% | 0% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
0% | 0% |
|
Play-offs
|
0% | 100% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ajax
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Jan. 2023 |
BOS
0 - 2
AJA
5%
14%
82%
|
88 | 56 | 32 | 0 |
| 08 Jan. 2023 |
NEC
1 - 1
AJA
11%
18%
72%
|
88 | 72 | 16 | 0 |
| 07 Dec. 2022 |
AJA
5 - 4
VOL
86%
10%
5%
|
88 | 66 | 22 | 0 |
| 03 Dec. 2022 |
AJA
0 - 2
BBU
84%
11%
5%
|
88 | 76 | 12 | 0 |
| 12 Nov. 2022 |
FCE
3 - 3
AJA
12%
19%
70%
|
88 | 73 | 15 | 0 |
Matches
Twente
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Jan. 2023 |
TWE
3 - 1
TEL
80%
15%
6%
|
82 | 57 | 25 | 0 |
| 06 Jan. 2023 |
TWE
2 - 0
FCE
57%
24%
20%
|
82 | 74 | 8 | 0 |
| 17 Dec. 2022 |
LDA
2 - 2
TWE
30%
25%
45%
|
81 | 74 | 7 | +1 |
| 10 Dec. 2022 |
TWE
2 - 1
SPA
62%
22%
16%
|
81 | 74 | 7 | 0 |
| 03 Dec. 2022 |
ALM
1 - 1
TWE
14%
21%
66%
|
81 | 63 | 18 | 0 |