Ajax vs Excelsior analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
78%
Win probability
2.36
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.4%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.5%
6-0
1.3%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.6%
5-0
3.3%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
+5
4.1%
4-0
7%
5-1
1.8%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
9.1%
3-0
11.9%
4-1
3.9%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
16.4%
2-0
15.1%
3-1
6.6%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
22.9%
1-0
12.8%
2-1
8.3%
3-2
1.8%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.2%
15.2%
Draw
0-0
5.4%
1-1
7.1%
2-2
2.3%
3-3
0.3%
4-4
<0%
0
15.1%
6.9%
Win probability
0.55
Expected goals
0-1
3%
1-2
1.9%
2-3
0.4%
3-4
0%
-1
5.4%
0-2
0.8%
1-3
0.4%
2-4
0.1%
-2
1.2%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0%
-3
0.2%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+1%
+11%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ajax
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Nov. 2011 |
NEC
0 - 3
AJA
12%
18%
70%
|
88 | 73 | 15 | 0 |
| 22 Nov. 2011 |
LYO
0 - 0
AJA
38%
24%
38%
|
89 | 88 | 1 | -1 |
| 19 Nov. 2011 |
AJA
2 - 2
NAC
78%
15%
8%
|
88 | 72 | 16 | +1 |
| 06 Nov. 2011 |
UTR
6 - 4
AJA
16%
20%
64%
|
88 | 76 | 12 | 0 |
| 02 Nov. 2011 |
AJA
4 - 0
DZG
64%
20%
15%
|
89 | 85 | 4 | -1 |
Matches
Excelsior
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Nov. 2011 |
EXC
1 - 1
ADO
30%
25%
46%
|
63 | 72 | 9 | 0 |
| 04 Nov. 2011 |
VVV
0 - 0
EXC
47%
24%
29%
|
62 | 60 | 2 | +1 |
| 29 Oct. 2011 |
EXC
1 - 0
RKC
24%
24%
52%
|
61 | 74 | 13 | +1 |
| 25 Oct. 2011 |
EXC
0 - 3
GVV
64%
19%
17%
|
63 | 54 | 9 | -2 |
| 22 Oct. 2011 |
EXC
0 - 2
HER
27%
25%
49%
|
63 | 76 | 13 | 0 |