FA Cup Final 2025: Who’s Most Likely to Win Based on Stats?
Fans of the big clubs in England are usually spoiled to see their teams in the final. It is rare to see one of the smaller teams participate in the final as this cup still holds prestige even among the so called Big 6.
This year's edition will feature Manchester City, led by Pep Guardiola, who were favoured to reach the final before the competition even started, although there were doubts during the year whether City could reach the final when their form wasn't up to standards we are used to from the Spaniard and the Citizens.
City's opponent on the day will be Crystal Palace, playing a distinct type of football under the Austrian mastermind Oliver Glasner. While entering the FA Cup final as the underdogs, palace will not surrender without a fight, and their team is best equipped to play on counter against heavy-possession based team of Manchester City.
Neither team had an easy route to the final, and both will deservedly be in the Wembley final on Saturday, May 17th, 2025. From the third round of the FA Cup, which is the first round for Premier League teams, Crystal palace showed that they're eyeing the competition and are making tactical changes for it. The results show that they looked to be defensively sound, and to finish their opponents from counter attacks and clinical finishes. It is easy to take a look at FA Cup predictions by Stake, and other similar outlets and claim that Manchester City will win this by ease, but that's not the case if you ask us.
During the third round and duel against Stockport County, CP won 0:1 by a goal from Ebere Eze. The situation remained the same in the next round when Doncaster Rover fell down to the Eagles 0:2. ON that day Daniel Munoz and Justin Devenny found themselves on the scoresheet. The fifth round of the FA Cup was the first major test for Palace but they overcame city rivals Millwall 3:1. Despite conceding with a player advantage on the field, the game was never in doubt. Interestingly enough, Crystal Palace played all of their matches up to the quarter finals away and after beating Fulham 0:3 on the road, it was evident that Glasner had his boys prepared for cup competition. What followed was the Wembley semi-final where Crystal Palace walked all over Aston Villa in a 3:0 rout with goals from Eze and Sarr.
As you can see, with Crystal Palace we have a team that plays better away, concedes little to no goals, and are more than ready to play counter-attacking football against possession-based teams.
One could argue Manchester City had a more difficult road to the finals based on their performances. They were by no means a safe bet, and if you were to enjoy some FA Cup betting down the road, you probably lost plenty of nerves with the Citizens. Of course, we're not talking about Manchester City trashing Salford City 8:0 as they were inspired to destroy a team owned by United legends, David Beckham and Gary Neville.
The first big test came for Citizens in the fourth round when they had to come back from behind against Leyton Orient, but snatched a win after a second half comeback 1:2. We saw the same scenario against Plymouth Argyle who by that point had already eliminated Liverpool. In both matches City had to come back from behind, against weaker opposition, showing at the same time their quality but also poor form they've been facing throughout the year. The same scenario awaited City vs. Bournemouth in the quarter final where they trailed at half time only to come back once again. This was the story of City in this year's edition of FA Cup. The only safe and secure wins came in the first round and in the semi-final where Forest fell rather easily 2:0.
While Crystal palace has their team tailored for cup competitions as they've proven through their FA Cup campaign it is a fact that they haven't had to face a team of City's quality. It is also interesting that they haven't; been behind during any game, and that their game plan worked to perfection each time. This is a luxury they can't expect when playing Pep's City.
On the other side we have Pep Guardiola and his Manchester City. After the worst season since he took over in Manchester, City's only opportunity at silverware is the FA Cup. Compared to the start of the year, City is playing much better now, and they have proven that they can come back even after trailing in the FA Cup. As far as the league is concerned they're on a four-win streak, while Palace hasn't recorded a win in the last five outings.
A cup final is a game that's never easy to predict, or make picks, but with everything above said, we are sure that the quality of Manchester City is going to prevail. Do not be surprised to see them trailing at half time, only to make a comeback in the second half as they did so many times this season in the FA Cup.