Q. Europa League Third Round Final
Global 0-1
Zalgiris Vilnius vs NS Mura analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
53.9%
Win probability
1.82
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.2%
4-0
2.4%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.6%
3-0
5.4%
4-1
2.7%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
8.7%
2-0
8.8%
3-1
6%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
16.5%
1-0
9.7%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3.3%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.4%
23%
Draw
0-0
5.3%
1-1
10.8%
2-2
5.5%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
22.9%
23.1%
Win probability
1.11
Expected goals
0-1
5.9%
1-2
6%
2-3
2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
14.3%
0-2
3.3%
1-3
2.2%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6.2%
0-3
1.2%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-6%
-29%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Zalgiris Vilnius
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Aug. 2021 |
ZAL
3 - 0
BAN
83%
13%
4%
|
78 | 54 | 24 | 0 |
| 05 Aug. 2021 |
NSM
0 - 0
ZAL
39%
24%
37%
|
78 | 75 | 3 | 0 |
| 27 Jul. 2021 |
ZAL
1 - 3
FTC
40%
25%
35%
|
78 | 81 | 3 | 0 |
| 20 Jul. 2021 |
FTC
2 - 0
ZAL
47%
24%
29%
|
79 | 80 | 1 | -1 |
| 13 Jul. 2021 |
LIN
1 - 2
ZAL
36%
24%
40%
|
78 | 72 | 6 | +1 |
Matches
NS Mura
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Aug. 2021 |
ALU
1 - 1
NSM
26%
27%
47%
|
75 | 68 | 7 | 0 |
| 05 Aug. 2021 |
NSM
0 - 0
ZAL
39%
24%
37%
|
75 | 78 | 3 | 0 |
| 31 Jul. 2021 |
NSM
1 - 1
BRA
53%
24%
22%
|
75 | 70 | 5 | 0 |
| 28 Jul. 2021 |
LUD
3 - 1
NSM
55%
23%
22%
|
76 | 80 | 4 | -1 |
| 24 Jul. 2021 |
FCK
3 - 2
NSM
28%
26%
47%
|
76 | 66 | 10 | 0 |