UCL Qualifying First Round Final
Global 2-2
Zalgiris Vilnius vs Hamrun Spartans analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
61.1%
Win probability
2.06
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1.4%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2%
4-0
3.4%
5-1
1.4%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.1%
3-0
6.6%
4-1
3.5%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
11%
2-0
9.7%
3-1
6.8%
4-2
1.8%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
18.6%
1-0
9.4%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.5%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.6%
20.7%
Draw
0-0
4.6%
1-1
9.7%
2-2
5.1%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
20.7%
18.1%
Win probability
1.03
Expected goals
0-1
4.7%
1-2
5%
2-3
1.7%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
11.8%
0-2
2.4%
1-3
1.7%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
4.6%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.4%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-3%
+2%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Zalgiris Vilnius
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Jul. 2025 |
ZAL
1 - 0
BAN
54%
24%
22%
|
76 | 74 | 2 | 0 |
| 29 Jun. 2025 |
PAN
2 - 4
ZAL
37%
27%
35%
|
75 | 77 | 2 | +1 |
| 24 Jun. 2025 |
ZAL
0 - 1
HLI
40%
25%
35%
|
75 | 77 | 2 | 0 |
| 19 Jun. 2025 |
SUD
2 - 2
ZAL
31%
29%
40%
|
75 | 76 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 Jun. 2025 |
ZAL
0 - 0
FAS
41%
25%
34%
|
75 | 76 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Hamrun Spartans
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 May. 2025 |
HAM
1 - 2
HIB
37%
24%
39%
|
70 | 69 | 1 | 0 |
| 10 May. 2025 |
HAM
1 - 0
BIR
44%
28%
28%
|
69 | 69 | 0 | +1 |
| 05 May. 2025 |
FLO
0 - 0
HAM
40%
28%
32%
|
69 | 69 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 Apr. 2025 |
MAR
0 - 1
HAM
47%
25%
28%
|
69 | 69 | 0 | 0 |
| 27 Apr. 2025 |
SLI
1 - 1
HAM
39%
28%
33%
|
69 | 69 | 0 | 0 |