Winterthur vs Basel analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
16.3%
Win probability
0.88
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
0.1%
+4
0.2%
3-0
0.7%
4-1
0.3%
5-2
<0%
+3
1%
2-0
2.3%
3-1
1.3%
4-2
0.3%
5-3
<0%
+2
3.9%
1-0
5.2%
2-1
4.5%
3-2
1.3%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
11.1%
21.3%
Draw
0-0
5.9%
1-1
10.1%
2-2
4.3%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
21.3%
62.4%
Win probability
1.95
Expected goals
0-1
11.5%
1-2
9.9%
2-3
2.8%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
24.6%
0-2
11.2%
1-3
6.4%
2-4
1.4%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
19.2%
0-3
7.3%
1-4
3.1%
2-5
0.5%
3-6
0.1%
-3
11%
0-4
3.5%
1-5
1.2%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
5%
0-5
1.4%
1-6
0.4%
2-7
0%
-5
1.8%
0-6
0.4%
1-7
0.1%
2-8
0%
-6
0.6%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.2%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+8%
+13%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
9º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
32
7º
10º
9º
47
3º
7º
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
5º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
74 | 74 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
58 | 58 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
57 | 57 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
50 | 50 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
|
5º
|
47 | 47 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
45 | 45 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
44 | 44 |
7º
|
0% | |
|
8º
|
44 | 44 |
8º
|
0% | |
|
|
9º
|
32 | 32 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
31 | 31 |
10º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Champions league qualifying phase (2nd r
|
0% | 0% |
|
Europa League qualifying phase
|
0% | 0% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
0% | 100% |
|
Mid-table
|
100% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Winterthur
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Apr. 2023 |
FCL
3 - 1
WIN
65%
21%
15%
|
68 | 79 | 11 | 0 |
| 22 Apr. 2023 |
WIN
1 - 2
GCZ
39%
26%
35%
|
68 | 71 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 Apr. 2023 |
STG
2 - 3
WIN
70%
18%
12%
|
67 | 79 | 12 | +1 |
| 10 Apr. 2023 |
WIN
1 - 2
FCL
27%
26%
48%
|
67 | 77 | 10 | 0 |
| 01 Apr. 2023 |
BAS
2 - 0
WIN
73%
17%
10%
|
68 | 84 | 16 | -1 |
Matches
Basel
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Apr. 2023 |
SIO
1 - 2
BAS
18%
23%
59%
|
84 | 71 | 13 | 0 |
| 23 Apr. 2023 |
BAS
0 - 2
FCL
60%
22%
18%
|
84 | 78 | 6 | 0 |
| 20 Apr. 2023 |
NIC
1 - 2
BAS
45%
25%
30%
|
84 | 85 | 1 | 0 |
| 16 Apr. 2023 |
BAS
1 - 1
YOB
40%
24%
36%
|
84 | 84 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 Apr. 2023 |
BAS
2 - 2
NIC
42%
26%
32%
|
83 | 85 | 2 | +1 |