Waterside Karori vs Napier City Rovers analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
13.1%
Win probability
1.05
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
6-1
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.2%
3-0
0.5%
4-1
0.3%
5-2
0.1%
6-3
<0%
+3
0.9%
2-0
1.4%
3-1
1.3%
4-2
0.4%
5-3
0.1%
+2
3.3%
1-0
2.7%
2-1
3.7%
3-2
1.7%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
0.1%
+1
8.6%
16.3%
Draw
0-0
2.6%
1-1
7.1%
2-2
4.8%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
16.3%
70.6%
Win probability
2.59
Expected goals
0-1
6.8%
1-2
9.2%
2-3
4.2%
3-4
0.9%
4-5
0.1%
5-6
0%
-1
21.3%
0-2
8.8%
1-3
8%
2-4
2.7%
3-5
0.5%
4-6
0.1%
-2
20.1%
0-3
7.6%
1-4
5.2%
2-5
1.4%
3-6
0.2%
4-7
0%
-3
14.5%
0-4
5%
1-5
2.7%
2-6
0.6%
3-7
0.1%
-4
8.3%
0-5
2.6%
1-6
1.2%
2-7
0.2%
3-8
0%
-5
4%
0-6
1.1%
1-7
0.4%
2-8
0.1%
-6
1.6%
0-7
0.4%
1-8
0.1%
2-9
0%
-7
0.6%
0-8
0.1%
1-9
0%
-8
0.2%
0-9
0%
1-10
0%
-9
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+5%
+20%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
12
2º
6º
5º
15
2º
4º
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
4º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
25 | 49 |
1º
|
99.5% | |
|
3º
|
18 | 37 |
2º
|
62% | |
|
2º
|
18 | 34 |
3º
|
36.5% | |
|
|
4º
|
15 | 34 |
4º
|
39.5% | |
|
|
6º
|
12 | 25 |
5º
|
30.5% | |
|
5º
|
13 | 24 |
6º
|
28% | |
|
7º
|
8 | 18 |
7º
|
34% | |
|
9º
|
7 | 15 |
8º
|
31% | |
|
8º
|
8 | 15 |
9º
|
52.5% | |
|
10º
|
2 | 5 |
10º
|
97% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Final Series
|
1% | 51% |
|
Mid-table
|
99% | 49% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Waterside Karori
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Apr. 2025 |
WSU
6 - 1
WKA
49%
22%
29%
|
21 | 21 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 Apr. 2025 |
WKA
3 - 3
IBU
78%
13%
9%
|
21 | 12 | 9 | 0 |
| 12 Apr. 2025 |
WEL
5 - 0
WKA
92%
6%
2%
|
21 | 46 | 25 | 0 |
| 05 Apr. 2025 |
WKA
2 - 0
UHC
50%
21%
30%
|
20 | 20 | 0 | +1 |
| 29 Mar. 2025 |
PET
1 - 2
WKA
38%
22%
40%
|
20 | 18 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Napier City Rovers
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Apr. 2025 |
IBU
1 - 6
NAP
9%
13%
78%
|
33 | 12 | 21 | 0 |
| 20 Apr. 2025 |
NAP
1 - 1
UHC
81%
11%
7%
|
33 | 19 | 14 | 0 |
| 12 Apr. 2025 |
WEL
2 - 0
NAP
39%
21%
40%
|
34 | 30 | 4 | -1 |
| 06 Apr. 2025 |
NAP
1 - 0
NWA
90%
7%
3%
|
34 | 10 | 24 | 0 |
| 29 Mar. 2025 |
WSU
2 - 3
NAP
15%
17%
68%
|
34 | 21 | 13 | 0 |