Villafranca vs Castiglione analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
34.3%
Win probability
1.36
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.3%
4-0
0.8%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.2%
3-0
2.4%
4-1
1.2%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
3.9%
2-0
5.3%
3-1
3.6%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
9.9%
1-0
7.8%
2-1
7.9%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
18.9%
24.9%
Draw
0-0
5.7%
1-1
11.7%
2-2
5.9%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.9%
40.8%
Win probability
1.5
Expected goals
0-1
8.6%
1-2
8.8%
2-3
3%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
20.9%
0-2
6.5%
1-3
4.4%
2-4
1.1%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
12.1%
0-3
3.2%
1-4
1.6%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
5.3%
0-4
1.2%
1-5
0.5%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.8%
0-5
0.4%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.5%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Villafranca
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Apr. 2011 |
DAR
2 - 1
VIL
62%
21%
17%
|
25 | 33 | 8 | 0 |
| 03 Apr. 2011 |
VIL
2 - 1
ALZ
38%
25%
38%
|
24 | 30 | 6 | +1 |
| 27 Mar. 2011 |
COL
3 - 0
VIL
60%
22%
18%
|
25 | 34 | 9 | -1 |
| 20 Mar. 2011 |
VIL
2 - 0
SAC
52%
24%
24%
|
24 | 24 | 0 | +1 |
| 13 Mar. 2011 |
GCS
0 - 1
VIL
54%
22%
24%
|
23 | 25 | 2 | +1 |
Matches
Castiglione
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Apr. 2011 |
COL
0 - 2
FCC
52%
24%
24%
|
31 | 34 | 3 | 0 |
| 03 Apr. 2011 |
FCC
3 - 0
DAR
35%
26%
39%
|
28 | 35 | 7 | +3 |
| 27 Mar. 2011 |
VOG
2 - 1
FCC
54%
23%
23%
|
29 | 32 | 3 | -1 |
| 20 Mar. 2011 |
FCC
4 - 0
GCS
52%
24%
25%
|
28 | 25 | 3 | +1 |
| 13 Mar. 2011 |
CAN
1 - 1
FCC
52%
23%
25%
|
28 | 30 | 2 | 0 |