Liga 3 Group B Round 3

União Santarém vs SC Covilha analysis

União Santarém SC Covilha
59 ELO 49
-10.3% Tilt -4.9%
3806º General ELO ranking 4964º
68º Country ELO ranking 91º
ELO win probability
63.7%
União Santarém
22%
Draw
14.3%
SC Covilha

Possible results

Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
63.7%
Win probability
União Santarém
1.84
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.3%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.7%
4-0
3.6%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.1%
+4
4.7%
3-0
7.9%
4-1
2.7%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
10.9%
2-0
12.9%
3-1
5.8%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
19.8%
1-0
14.1%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
2.1%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.9%
22%
Draw
0-0
7.7%
1-1
10.3%
2-2
3.5%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
22%
14.3%
Win probability
SC Covilha
0.73
Expected goals
0-1
5.6%
1-2
3.8%
2-3
0.8%
3-4
0.1%
-1
10.3%
0-2
2.1%
1-3
0.9%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3.1%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.7%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%

ELO Graph/Inclination

← Defensive Tilt Attacking →
União Santarém
+23%
-20%
SC Covilha

Points and table prediction

União Santarém
Their league position
SC Covilha
CURR.POS.
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
3
0
10º
10º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
Expected position in the table
Current table Final expectations
RK PTS. PTS. RK PROB
Mafra
1
35
45%
Os Belenenses
1
29
16%
Lusitano Évora 1911
10º
0
29
13.5%
União Santarém
3
28
17%
Académica
0
25
12.5%
Amora FC
3
25
13%
Atlético CP
0
22
12%
1º Dezembro
3
22
16%
Caldas
3
19
21%
SC Covilha
0
16
10º
44.5%
Expected probabilities
União Santarém
SC Covilha
Promotion play-offs
59% 3%
Relegation play-offs
41% 97%

ELO progression

União Santarém
SC Covilha
1º Dezembro
Amora FC
Mafra
Académica
Next opponents in ELO points

Matches

União Santarém
União Santarém
1%
X%
2%
ELO ELO Cont. ▵ELO ±ELO
09 Aug. 2025
USA
União Santarém
1 - 0
Lusitano Évora 1911
ALE
31%
28%
41%
58 64 6 0
04 May. 2025
ACA
Académica
0 - 4
União Santarém
USA
49%
26%
25%
57 59 2 +1
25 Apr. 2025
USA
União Santarém
2 - 0
Lusitânia
LUS
55%
24%
21%
56 50 6 +1
12 Apr. 2025
CAL
Caldas
0 - 1
União Santarém
USA
32%
27%
41%
55 50 5 +1
06 Apr. 2025
OLI
Oliveira Hospital
0 - 2
União Santarém
USA
31%
26%
43%
54 49 5 +1

Matches

SC Covilha
SC Covilha
1%
X%
2%
ELO ELO Cont. ▵ELO ±ELO
09 Aug. 2025
CAL
Caldas
2 - 1
SC Covilha
SPC
46%
25%
29%
50 49 1 0
25 Jul. 2025
CAL
Caldas
1 - 1
SC Covilha
SPC
43%
25%
32%
50 49 1 0
04 May. 2025
SPC
SC Covilha
1 - 1
Caldas
CAL
49%
24%
27%
50 49 1 0
25 Apr. 2025
OLI
Oliveira Hospital
1 - 0
SC Covilha
SPC
40%
26%
34%
50 48 2 0
16 Apr. 2025
SPC
SC Covilha
1 - 2
Lusitânia
LUS
51%
23%
26%
51 49 2 -1