UCF vs James Madison analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
48.5%
Win probability
1.94
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.4%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.2%
4-0
1.9%
5-1
1.1%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.3%
3-0
4%
4-1
2.9%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
7.8%
2-0
6.1%
3-1
5.9%
4-2
2.1%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
14.6%
1-0
6.3%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
4.4%
4-3
1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
21%
22%
Draw
0-0
3.3%
1-1
9.4%
2-2
6.7%
3-3
2.2%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
<0%
0
22%
29.5%
Win probability
1.48
Expected goals
0-1
4.8%
1-2
6.9%
2-3
3.3%
3-4
0.8%
4-5
0.1%
5-6
0%
-1
16%
0-2
3.6%
1-3
3.4%
2-4
1.2%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
8.5%
0-3
1.8%
1-4
1.3%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0.1%
-3
3.5%
0-4
0.7%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
1.1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
UCF
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Apr. 2021 |
UCF
1 - 0
TUL
57%
20%
23%
|
31 | 28 | 3 | 0 |
| 15 Apr. 2021 |
UCF
1 - 1
SMU
55%
21%
25%
|
32 | 29 | 3 | -1 |
| 09 Apr. 2021 |
MPH
0 - 3
UCF
9%
15%
76%
|
31 | 14 | 17 | +1 |
| 02 Apr. 2021 |
UCF
2 - 1
SMU
52%
21%
27%
|
31 | 30 | 1 | 0 |
| 27 Mar. 2021 |
SFB
0 - 1
UCF
22%
21%
57%
|
31 | 22 | 9 | 0 |
Matches
James Madison
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Apr. 2021 |
HFP
0 - 0
JMD
51%
21%
28%
|
30 | 30 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 Apr. 2021 |
DUD
1 - 1
JMD
44%
22%
35%
|
30 | 28 | 2 | 0 |
| 09 Apr. 2021 |
JMD
2 - 0
UNC
60%
19%
21%
|
30 | 26 | 4 | 0 |
| 02 Apr. 2021 |
WMM
0 - 1
JMD
23%
21%
57%
|
30 | 21 | 9 | 0 |
| 27 Mar. 2021 |
CCR
1 - 2
JMD
12%
17%
71%
|
29 | 17 | 12 | +1 |