TuS Geretsried vs Heimstetten analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
9.4%
Win probability
0.7
Expected goals
4-0
<0%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.1%
3-0
0.3%
4-1
0.1%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.4%
2-0
1.2%
3-1
0.6%
4-2
0.1%
5-3
<0%
+2
2%
1-0
3.3%
2-1
2.7%
3-2
0.8%
4-3
0.1%
+1
6.9%
16.4%
Draw
0-0
4.7%
1-1
7.8%
2-2
3.2%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
16.4%
74.2%
Win probability
2.35
Expected goals
0-1
11.1%
1-2
9.2%
2-3
2.5%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
23.2%
0-2
13%
1-3
7.2%
2-4
1.5%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
21.9%
0-3
10.2%
1-4
4.2%
2-5
0.7%
3-6
0.1%
-3
15.2%
0-4
6%
1-5
2%
2-6
0.3%
3-7
0%
-4
8.3%
0-5
2.8%
1-6
0.8%
2-7
0.1%
-5
3.7%
0-6
1.1%
1-7
0.3%
2-8
0%
-6
1.4%
0-7
0.4%
1-8
0.1%
-7
0.4%
0-8
0.1%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+27%
+16%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
7º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
10
3º
15º
12º
5
5º
13º
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
13º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
2º
|
13 | 66 |
1º
|
39% | |
|
3º
|
12 | 62 |
2º
|
18% | |
|
1º
|
14 | 62 |
3º
|
14% | |
|
9º
|
9 | 59 |
4º
|
12.5% | |
|
11º
|
8 | 58 |
5º
|
13% | |
|
|
13º
|
5 | 54 |
6º
|
15.5% | |
|
5º
|
11 | 53 |
7º
|
14.5% | |
|
10º
|
9 | 50 |
8º
|
17% | |
|
14º
|
5 | 49 |
9º
|
16.5% | |
|
8º
|
9 | 41 |
10º
|
13% | |
|
15º
|
3 | 39 |
11º
|
17% | |
|
|
7º
|
10 | 33 |
12º
|
15% | |
|
12º
|
5 | 32 |
13º
|
12% | |
|
6º
|
10 | 30 |
14º
|
15.5% | |
|
4º
|
11 | 28 |
15º
|
21% | |
|
16º
|
1 | 25 |
16º
|
26% | |
|
17º
|
0 | 13 |
17º
|
78% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 3.5% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 8% |
|
Mid-table
|
54% | 88.5% |
|
Relegation
|
46% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
TuS Geretsried
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Aug. 2025 |
KOT
0 - 2
TUS
84%
11%
5%
|
31 | 52 | 21 | 0 |
| 19 Jul. 2025 |
TUS
1 - 1
ISM
20%
21%
59%
|
30 | 45 | 15 | +1 |
| 25 Jan. 2025 |
TAM
4 - 2
TUS
70%
18%
12%
|
30 | 49 | 19 | 0 |
| 18 May. 2024 |
NFH
0 - 3
TUS
25%
20%
56%
|
29 | 21 | 8 | +1 |
| 11 May. 2024 |
TUS
2 - 2
PUL
57%
21%
23%
|
29 | 25 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
Heimstetten
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jul. 2025 |
HEI
1 - 1
186
47%
23%
30%
|
52 | 55 | 3 | 0 |
| 26 Jul. 2025 |
ISM
1 - 1
HEI
21%
22%
58%
|
52 | 44 | 8 | 0 |
| 19 Jul. 2025 |
HEI
3 - 3
TSV
64%
18%
18%
|
52 | 49 | 3 | 0 |
| 28 Jun. 2025 |
HEI
3 - 1
VFB
88%
8%
4%
|
52 | 30 | 22 | 0 |
| 16 May. 2025 |
LAN
6 - 1
HEI
49%
23%
29%
|
53 | 54 | 1 | -1 |