Thun vs Aarau analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
31.8%
Win probability
1.35
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.3%
4-0
0.7%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.1%
3-0
2.1%
4-1
1.1%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
3.5%
2-0
4.6%
3-1
3.4%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
9.1%
1-0
6.9%
2-1
7.5%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
17.7%
24.2%
Draw
0-0
5.1%
1-1
11.2%
2-2
6.1%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.2%
44.1%
Win probability
1.63
Expected goals
0-1
8.3%
1-2
9.1%
2-3
3.3%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
21.4%
0-2
6.8%
1-3
4.9%
2-4
1.4%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
13.3%
0-3
3.7%
1-4
2%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0.1%
-3
6.2%
0-4
1.5%
1-5
0.7%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
2.3%
0-5
0.5%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.7%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+5%
-14%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
49
4º
9º
6º
57
2º
7º
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
4º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
66 | 66 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
61 | 61 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
60 | 60 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
|
4º
|
57 | 57 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
5º
|
56 | 56 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
|
6º
|
49 | 49 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
44 | 44 |
7º
|
100% | |
|
8º
|
37 | 37 |
8º
|
100% | |
|
9º
|
37 | 37 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
24 | 24 |
10º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
100% | 100% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Thun
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Jul. 2022 |
YVE
3 - 1
THU
33%
25%
42%
|
64 | 60 | 4 | 0 |
| 22 Jul. 2022 |
THU
1 - 1
BEL
48%
25%
28%
|
64 | 60 | 4 | 0 |
| 15 Jul. 2022 |
SCH
1 - 0
THU
42%
25%
34%
|
64 | 65 | 1 | 0 |
| 09 Jul. 2022 |
THU
0 - 1
LAU
43%
24%
33%
|
65 | 66 | 1 | -1 |
| 02 Jul. 2022 |
THU
2 - 1
STA
59%
21%
20%
|
65 | 59 | 6 | 0 |
Matches
Aarau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Jul. 2022 |
FCA
1 - 2
LAU
44%
25%
30%
|
65 | 66 | 1 | 0 |
| 22 Jul. 2022 |
NEX
1 - 2
FCA
21%
22%
57%
|
65 | 56 | 9 | 0 |
| 15 Jul. 2022 |
FCA
1 - 1
FCV
42%
24%
34%
|
65 | 64 | 1 | 0 |
| 08 Jul. 2022 |
SCH
1 - 3
FCA
5%
11%
85%
|
66 | 34 | 32 | -1 |
| 29 Jun. 2022 |
FCA
0 - 2
WAL
56%
22%
23%
|
66 | 64 | 2 | 0 |