Thun vs Aarau analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
53.4%
Win probability
1.79
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.2%
4-0
2.4%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.5%
3-0
5.3%
4-1
2.6%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
8.5%
2-0
8.9%
3-1
5.8%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
16.3%
1-0
9.9%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3.2%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.5%
23.2%
Draw
0-0
5.6%
1-1
11%
2-2
5.4%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
23.2%
23.4%
Win probability
1.1
Expected goals
0-1
6.1%
1-2
6%
2-3
2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
14.5%
0-2
3.4%
1-3
2.2%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6.2%
0-3
1.2%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+9%
+1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Thun
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Sep. 2002 |
WIL
1 - 5
THU
57%
22%
21%
|
73 | 76 | 3 | 0 |
| 24 Aug. 2002 |
THU
4 - 2
BAS
25%
24%
52%
|
72 | 85 | 13 | +1 |
| 17 Aug. 2002 |
GCZ
4 - 1
THU
78%
14%
8%
|
72 | 85 | 13 | 0 |
| 10 Aug. 2002 |
SER
3 - 1
THU
65%
21%
14%
|
73 | 82 | 9 | -1 |
| 07 Aug. 2002 |
ZUR
0 - 1
THU
60%
23%
18%
|
72 | 81 | 9 | +1 |
Matches
Aarau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Aug. 2002 |
FCA
1 - 2
FCL
56%
23%
21%
|
74 | 67 | 7 | 0 |
| 24 Aug. 2002 |
SER
5 - 0
FCA
63%
21%
16%
|
74 | 83 | 9 | 0 |
| 18 Aug. 2002 |
FCA
3 - 1
ZUR
39%
27%
34%
|
74 | 80 | 6 | 0 |
| 11 Aug. 2002 |
DEL
2 - 1
FCA
42%
25%
32%
|
74 | 69 | 5 | 0 |
| 03 Aug. 2002 |
FCA
1 - 1
STG
34%
26%
41%
|
74 | 81 | 7 | 0 |