Thun vs Basel analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
24.9%
Win probability
1.15
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.4%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.6%
3-0
1.4%
4-1
0.7%
5-2
0.1%
6-3
<0%
+3
2.2%
2-0
3.6%
3-1
2.4%
4-2
0.6%
5-3
0.1%
+2
6.7%
1-0
6.3%
2-1
6.3%
3-2
2.1%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
15.1%
23.5%
Draw
0-0
5.5%
1-1
11%
2-2
5.6%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
23.5%
51.6%
Win probability
1.76
Expected goals
0-1
9.6%
1-2
9.7%
2-3
3.3%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
23.2%
0-2
8.4%
1-3
5.7%
2-4
1.4%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
15.8%
0-3
4.9%
1-4
2.5%
2-5
0.5%
3-6
0.1%
-3
8%
0-4
2.2%
1-5
0.9%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
3.2%
0-5
0.8%
1-6
0.3%
2-7
0%
-5
1.1%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0.1%
-6
0.3%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+9%
+17%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Thun
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Sep. 2011 |
ZUR
0 - 0
THU
60%
23%
17%
|
75 | 83 | 8 | 0 |
| 17 Sep. 2011 |
STA
0 - 5
THU
7%
15%
78%
|
75 | 35 | 40 | 0 |
| 11 Sep. 2011 |
THU
0 - 3
SIO
42%
26%
32%
|
75 | 78 | 3 | 0 |
| 28 Aug. 2011 |
BAS
2 - 1
THU
69%
19%
13%
|
76 | 85 | 9 | -1 |
| 25 Aug. 2011 |
STO
4 - 1
THU
62%
22%
16%
|
76 | 86 | 10 | 0 |
Matches
Basel
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Sep. 2011 |
BAS
6 - 0
LAU
81%
13%
6%
|
85 | 64 | 21 | 0 |
| 17 Sep. 2011 |
ESC
0 - 4
BAS
4%
11%
85%
|
85 | 23 | 62 | 0 |
| 14 Sep. 2011 |
BAS
2 - 1
GAL
71%
18%
11%
|
85 | 78 | 7 | 0 |
| 10 Sep. 2011 |
SER
0 - 4
BAS
24%
23%
53%
|
85 | 71 | 14 | 0 |
| 28 Aug. 2011 |
BAS
2 - 1
THU
69%
19%
13%
|
85 | 76 | 9 | 0 |