The New Saints vs Arbroath analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
83.4%
Win probability
3.18
Expected goals
10-0
0.1%
+10
0.1%
9-0
0.2%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.2%
8-0
0.5%
9-1
0.1%
10-2
<0%
+8
0.6%
7-0
1.2%
8-1
0.4%
9-2
0.1%
+7
1.7%
6-0
2.7%
7-1
1%
8-2
0.2%
9-3
<0%
+6
3.8%
5-0
5.1%
6-1
2.1%
7-2
0.4%
8-3
<0%
+5
7.7%
4-0
8%
5-1
4%
6-2
0.8%
7-3
0.1%
+4
13%
3-0
10.1%
4-1
6.3%
5-2
1.6%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
18.3%
2-0
9.6%
3-1
8%
4-2
2.5%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.5%
1-0
6%
2-1
7.5%
3-2
3.2%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
17.5%
10.6%
Draw
0-0
1.9%
1-1
4.8%
2-2
3%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
10.6%
6%
Win probability
0.79
Expected goals
0-1
1.5%
1-2
1.9%
2-3
0.8%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
4.3%
0-2
0.6%
1-3
0.5%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
1.3%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.3%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
The New Saints
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov. 2023 |
TNS
7 - 0
TRE
94%
4%
2%
|
68 | 21 | 47 | 0 |
| 04 Nov. 2023 |
NEW
0 - 2
TNS
42%
25%
33%
|
67 | 67 | 0 | +1 |
| 31 Oct. 2023 |
TNS
6 - 1
COL
85%
10%
5%
|
67 | 51 | 16 | 0 |
| 28 Oct. 2023 |
TNS
2 - 0
BAL
67%
18%
15%
|
67 | 64 | 3 | 0 |
| 24 Oct. 2023 |
TNS
9 - 0
GRE
94%
5%
1%
|
68 | 41 | 27 | -1 |
Matches
Arbroath
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov. 2023 |
AIR
2 - 0
ARB
58%
23%
19%
|
57 | 60 | 3 | 0 |
| 04 Nov. 2023 |
ARB
1 - 3
PAR
27%
26%
47%
|
58 | 64 | 6 | -1 |
| 27 Oct. 2023 |
DUN
6 - 0
ARB
66%
21%
13%
|
58 | 69 | 11 | 0 |
| 14 Oct. 2023 |
QOS
1 - 2
ARB
37%
25%
38%
|
57 | 53 | 4 | +1 |
| 30 Sep. 2023 |
ARB
2 - 3
ICT
38%
26%
35%
|
58 | 58 | 0 | -1 |