The Gap vs St George Willawong analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
11.5%
Win probability
0.96
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.2%
3-0
0.4%
4-1
0.3%
5-2
0.1%
+3
0.7%
2-0
1.3%
3-1
1.1%
4-2
0.3%
5-3
0.1%
+2
2.8%
1-0
2.7%
2-1
3.4%
3-2
1.4%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
7.8%
15.7%
Draw
0-0
2.8%
1-1
7%
2-2
4.4%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
15.7%
72.8%
Win probability
2.61
Expected goals
0-1
7.3%
1-2
9.2%
2-3
3.8%
3-4
0.8%
4-5
0.1%
-1
21.3%
0-2
9.6%
1-3
8%
2-4
2.5%
3-5
0.4%
4-6
0%
-2
20.6%
0-3
8.4%
1-4
5.2%
2-5
1.3%
3-6
0.2%
4-7
0%
-3
15.1%
0-4
5.5%
1-5
2.7%
2-6
0.6%
3-7
0.1%
-4
8.8%
0-5
2.9%
1-6
1.2%
2-7
0.2%
3-8
0%
-5
4.3%
0-6
1.2%
1-7
0.4%
2-8
0.1%
-6
1.8%
0-7
0.5%
1-8
0.1%
2-9
0%
-7
0.6%
0-8
0.2%
1-9
0%
-8
0.2%
0-9
0%
1-10
0%
-9
0.1%
0-10
0%
-10
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-15%
-27%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
The Gap
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep. 2020 |
CAB
5 - 3
GAP
27%
22%
51%
|
25 | 19 | 6 | 0 |
| 11 Sep. 2020 |
GAP
0 - 4
ALB
22%
19%
59%
|
27 | 38 | 11 | -2 |
| 05 Sep. 2020 |
NOR
0 - 0
GAP
11%
16%
73%
|
27 | 13 | 14 | 0 |
| 30 Aug. 2020 |
GAP
3 - 2
BRK
80%
12%
8%
|
27 | 19 | 8 | 0 |
| 22 Aug. 2020 |
BAY
2 - 2
GAP
75%
15%
11%
|
27 | 37 | 10 | 0 |
Matches
St George Willawong
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep. 2020 |
GEO
1 - 0
TAR
74%
16%
10%
|
44 | 34 | 10 | 0 |
| 12 Sep. 2020 |
CAB
1 - 4
GEO
8%
14%
78%
|
44 | 20 | 24 | 0 |
| 06 Sep. 2020 |
TOO
1 - 3
GEO
38%
24%
38%
|
42 | 38 | 4 | +2 |
| 30 Aug. 2020 |
GEO
3 - 2
ALB
59%
21%
21%
|
42 | 39 | 3 | 0 |
| 21 Aug. 2020 |
STO
0 - 3
GEO
16%
18%
66%
|
41 | 25 | 16 | +1 |