Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Universidad analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
59.2%
Win probability
1.97
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.2%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.7%
4-0
3.1%
5-1
1.3%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.6%
3-0
6.3%
4-1
3.2%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
10.3%
2-0
9.7%
3-1
6.5%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
18.1%
1-0
9.8%
2-1
10%
3-2
3.4%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.8%
21.5%
Draw
0-0
5%
1-1
10.1%
2-2
5.1%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
21.5%
19.3%
Win probability
1.03
Expected goals
0-1
5.1%
1-2
5.2%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
12.4%
0-2
2.6%
1-3
1.8%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
4.9%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.5%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-5%
-24%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
3º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
3
1º
1º
1º
0
12º
17º
13º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
17º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
3º
|
3 | 10 |
1º
|
20.5% | |
|
4º
|
3 | 10 |
2º
|
13% | |
|
8º
|
3 | 10 |
3º
|
9% | |
|
6º
|
3 | 10 |
4º
|
10.5% | |
|
5º
|
3 | 9 |
5º
|
9% | |
|
10º
|
1 | 8 |
6º
|
8% | |
|
9º
|
1 | 8 |
7º
|
9% | |
|
1º
|
3 | 7 |
8º
|
7% | |
|
2º
|
3 | 7 |
9º
|
5% | |
|
7º
|
3 | 7 |
10º
|
8.5% | |
|
14º
|
0 | 7 |
11º
|
6% | |
|
16º
|
0 | 5 |
12º
|
11% | |
|
|
17º
|
0 | 5 |
13º
|
7.5% | |
|
11º
|
0 | 4 |
14º
|
4.5% | |
|
15º
|
0 | 4 |
15º
|
11.5% | |
|
18º
|
0 | 4 |
16º
|
10.5% | |
|
19º
|
0 | 4 |
17º
|
11% | |
|
12º
|
0 | 4 |
18º
|
20.5% | |
|
13º
|
0 | 3 |
19º
|
19% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Play-offs for the title
|
20.5% | 0.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
79.5% | 99.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Sporting Cristal
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Jul. 2025 |
SPC
2 - 1
AGP
52%
24%
24%
|
78 | 78 | 0 | 0 |
| 05 Jul. 2025 |
CIE
1 - 1
SPC
46%
24%
29%
|
78 | 79 | 1 | 0 |
| 29 Jun. 2025 |
SPC
2 - 0
COM
63%
20%
17%
|
77 | 70 | 7 | +1 |
| 21 Jun. 2025 |
SRP
3 - 1
SPC
39%
25%
36%
|
78 | 75 | 3 | -1 |
| 15 Jun. 2025 |
SPC
3 - 2
CDG
58%
23%
19%
|
77 | 74 | 3 | +1 |
Matches
Alianza Universidad
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Jul. 2025 |
JPC
1 - 0
AUN
23%
24%
53%
|
73 | 49 | 24 | 0 |
| 06 Jul. 2025 |
AUN
2 - 0
ALI
32%
28%
41%
|
72 | 79 | 7 | +1 |
| 30 Jun. 2025 |
GAR
4 - 1
AUN
56%
23%
21%
|
73 | 79 | 6 | -1 |
| 21 Jun. 2025 |
AUN
1 - 2
UTC
50%
26%
24%
|
73 | 70 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 Jun. 2025 |
BIN
1 - 1
AUN
38%
25%
38%
|
73 | 67 | 6 | 0 |