Siena vs Novara analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
59.5%
Win probability
1.83
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1.1%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.5%
4-0
3.1%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.2%
3-0
6.7%
4-1
2.7%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
9.9%
2-0
11%
3-1
6%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
18.4%
1-0
12.1%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.9%
22.6%
Draw
0-0
6.6%
1-1
10.7%
2-2
4.4%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
22.6%
17.9%
Win probability
0.89
Expected goals
0-1
5.9%
1-2
4.8%
2-3
1.3%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
12.1%
0-2
2.6%
1-3
1.4%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4.3%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.1%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Siena
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Jan. 2014 |
CRO
0 - 0
SIE
27%
26%
47%
|
78 | 66 | 12 | 0 |
| 23 Jan. 2014 |
FIO
2 - 1
SIE
73%
17%
10%
|
79 | 87 | 8 | -1 |
| 15 Jan. 2014 |
CAT
1 - 4
SIE
43%
27%
30%
|
78 | 78 | 0 | +1 |
| 29 Dec. 2013 |
SIE
1 - 1
VAR
65%
21%
14%
|
78 | 67 | 11 | 0 |
| 26 Dec. 2013 |
PAD
2 - 2
SIE
21%
27%
53%
|
78 | 62 | 16 | 0 |
Matches
Novara
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jan. 2014 |
NOV
2 - 1
AVE
49%
26%
26%
|
68 | 66 | 2 | 0 |
| 19 Jan. 2014 |
VAR
1 - 1
NOV
45%
25%
29%
|
68 | 67 | 1 | 0 |
| 29 Dec. 2013 |
NOV
0 - 1
BAR
54%
25%
21%
|
69 | 66 | 3 | -1 |
| 21 Dec. 2013 |
NOV
0 - 1
EMP
40%
27%
33%
|
69 | 74 | 5 | 0 |
| 14 Dec. 2013 |
JUS
1 - 2
NOV
27%
25%
48%
|
68 | 57 | 11 | +1 |