Nigeria vs Mali analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
69.4%
Win probability
2.56
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.4%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.5%
6-0
1%
7-1
0.4%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1.5%
5-0
2.4%
6-1
1.1%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
3.8%
4-0
4.7%
5-1
2.6%
6-2
0.6%
7-3
0.1%
+4
8%
3-0
7.4%
4-1
5.1%
5-2
1.4%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
14.1%
2-0
8.7%
3-1
7.9%
4-2
2.7%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
19.9%
1-0
6.8%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
4.3%
4-3
1%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.4%
16.7%
Draw
0-0
2.6%
1-1
7.3%
2-2
5%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
16.7%
13.8%
Win probability
1.07
Expected goals
0-1
2.8%
1-2
3.9%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0.1%
-1
9%
0-2
1.5%
1-3
1.4%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
3.5%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nigeria
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Mar. 1978 |
NGA
2 - 0
TUN
65%
20%
15%
|
74 | 75 | 1 | 0 |
| 14 Mar. 1978 |
UGA
2 - 1
NGA
48%
25%
27%
|
75 | 63 | 12 | -1 |
| 10 Mar. 1978 |
ZAM
0 - 0
NGA
49%
24%
27%
|
75 | 59 | 16 | 0 |
| 08 Mar. 1978 |
NGA
1 - 1
GHA
60%
20%
20%
|
75 | 76 | 1 | 0 |
| 05 Mar. 1978 |
NGA
4 - 2
BFA
80%
12%
8%
|
75 | 54 | 21 | 0 |
Matches
Mali
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Nov. 1976 |
MLI
2 - 1
BFA
73%
15%
12%
|
65 | 55 | 10 | 0 |
| 15 Jan. 1976 |
MLI
2 - 2
GAM
62%
18%
20%
|
65 | 63 | 2 | 0 |
| 06 Jan. 1974 |
MLI
1 - 0
TUN
46%
22%
32%
|
64 | 72 | 8 | +1 |
| 03 Oct. 1972 |
MLI
1 - 3
GAM
64%
18%
19%
|
64 | 61 | 3 | 0 |
| 01 Oct. 1972 |
MLI
11 - 0
MTN
85%
11%
5%
|
64 | 39 | 25 | 0 |