Mexico vs Sweden analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
43.8%
Win probability
1.5
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.6%
4-0
1.4%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2%
3-0
3.7%
4-1
1.7%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.8%
2-0
7.4%
3-1
4.5%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
13.1%
1-0
9.9%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.2%
25.4%
Draw
0-0
6.6%
1-1
12%
2-2
5.5%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.4%
30.8%
Win probability
1.22
Expected goals
0-1
8%
1-2
7.3%
2-3
2.2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
18%
0-2
4.9%
1-3
3%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
8.6%
0-3
2%
1-4
0.9%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.1%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.9%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Mexico
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Nov. 2004 |
MEX
8 - 0
KNA
95%
4%
1%
|
92 | 53 | 39 | 0 |
| 14 Nov. 2004 |
KNA
0 - 5
MEX
9%
20%
71%
|
92 | 53 | 39 | 0 |
| 10 Nov. 2004 |
MEX
2 - 0
GTM
77%
16%
8%
|
92 | 81 | 11 | 0 |
| 27 Oct. 2004 |
MEX
2 - 1
ECU
72%
18%
10%
|
92 | 86 | 6 | 0 |
| 13 Oct. 2004 |
MEX
3 - 0
TTO
77%
15%
8%
|
92 | 77 | 15 | 0 |
Matches
Sweden
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jan. 2005 |
SWE
1 - 1
KOR
58%
23%
19%
|
94 | 90 | 4 | 0 |
| 17 Nov. 2004 |
SCT
1 - 4
SWE
26%
28%
46%
|
94 | 89 | 5 | 0 |
| 13 Oct. 2004 |
ISL
1 - 4
SWE
19%
26%
55%
|
94 | 80 | 14 | 0 |
| 09 Oct. 2004 |
SWE
3 - 0
HUN
65%
21%
15%
|
94 | 86 | 8 | 0 |
| 08 Sep. 2004 |
SWE
0 - 1
HRV
56%
24%
20%
|
94 | 92 | 2 | 0 |