Italy vs Brazil analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
48.7%
Win probability
1.94
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.4%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.2%
4-0
1.9%
5-1
1.1%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.4%
3-0
4%
4-1
2.9%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
7.8%
2-0
6.2%
3-1
5.9%
4-2
2.1%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
14.7%
1-0
6.4%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
4.3%
4-3
1%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.1%
22%
Draw
0-0
3.3%
1-1
9.4%
2-2
6.7%
3-3
2.1%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
<0%
0
22%
29.3%
Win probability
1.47
Expected goals
0-1
4.9%
1-2
6.9%
2-3
3.3%
3-4
0.8%
4-5
0.1%
5-6
0%
-1
16%
0-2
3.6%
1-3
3.4%
2-4
1.2%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
8.4%
0-3
1.8%
1-4
1.2%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0.1%
-3
3.4%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
1.1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Mar. 1963 |
TUR
0 - 1
ITA
32%
25%
44%
|
87 | 74 | 13 | 0 |
| 02 Dec. 1962 |
ITA
6 - 0
TUR
76%
14%
10%
|
87 | 74 | 13 | 0 |
| 11 Nov. 1962 |
AUT
1 - 2
ITA
53%
21%
26%
|
87 | 83 | 4 | 0 |
| 07 Jun. 1962 |
ITA
3 - 0
CHE
83%
11%
6%
|
87 | 70 | 17 | 0 |
| 02 Jun. 1962 |
CHL
2 - 0
ITA
56%
20%
24%
|
87 | 75 | 12 | 0 |
Matches
Brazil
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 May. 1963 |
ENG
1 - 1
BRA
57%
19%
23%
|
89 | 88 | 1 | 0 |
| 05 May. 1963 |
BRD
1 - 2
BRA
41%
23%
37%
|
89 | 83 | 6 | 0 |
| 02 May. 1963 |
NLD
1 - 0
BRA
22%
21%
57%
|
90 | 71 | 19 | -1 |
| 28 Apr. 1963 |
FRA
2 - 3
BRA
32%
22%
46%
|
89 | 80 | 9 | +1 |
| 24 Apr. 1963 |
BEL
5 - 1
BRA
22%
22%
57%
|
90 | 73 | 17 | -1 |