Bulgaria vs Italy analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
24.8%
Win probability
0.93
Expected goals
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.3%
5-1
0.1%
+4
0.4%
3-0
1.3%
4-1
0.4%
5-2
0.1%
+3
1.8%
2-0
4.2%
3-1
1.8%
4-2
0.3%
5-3
<0%
+2
6.3%
1-0
9%
2-1
5.9%
3-2
1.3%
4-3
0.1%
+1
16.3%
27.1%
Draw
0-0
9.7%
1-1
12.6%
2-2
4.1%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
<0%
0
27.1%
48.1%
Win probability
1.41
Expected goals
0-1
13.6%
1-2
8.9%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
24.7%
0-2
9.6%
1-3
4.2%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
14.5%
0-3
4.5%
1-4
1.5%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
6.2%
0-4
1.6%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0%
-4
2%
0-5
0.4%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.5%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-14%
-4%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Bulgaria
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Sep. 2008 |
MNE
2 - 2
BGR
14%
23%
63%
|
91 | 69 | 22 | 0 |
| 20 Aug. 2008 |
BIH
1 - 2
BGR
23%
28%
49%
|
91 | 79 | 12 | 0 |
| 26 Mar. 2008 |
BGR
2 - 1
FIN
69%
20%
11%
|
90 | 84 | 6 | +1 |
| 06 Feb. 2008 |
NIR
0 - 1
BGR
32%
29%
40%
|
89 | 84 | 5 | +1 |
| 21 Nov. 2007 |
SVN
0 - 2
BGR
30%
28%
42%
|
89 | 82 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Sep. 2008 |
ITA
2 - 0
GEO
77%
17%
6%
|
99 | 77 | 22 | 0 |
| 06 Sep. 2008 |
CYP
1 - 2
ITA
14%
25%
61%
|
99 | 78 | 21 | 0 |
| 20 Aug. 2008 |
ITA
2 - 2
AUT
69%
20%
11%
|
99 | 87 | 12 | 0 |
| 22 Jun. 2008 |
ESP
0 - 0
ITA
54%
23%
23%
|
98 | 99 | 1 | +1 |
| 17 Jun. 2008 |
FRA
0 - 2
ITA
54%
23%
22%
|
98 | 99 | 1 | 0 |