Copa Libertadores qualifying 1st Round Final
Global 2-1
São Paulo vs Univ. César Vallejo analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
64.1%
Win probability
1.93
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1.5%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.9%
4-0
3.8%
5-1
1.2%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.1%
3-0
7.8%
4-1
3%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
11.4%
2-0
12.2%
3-1
6.2%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
19.8%
1-0
12.6%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.2%
21.2%
Draw
0-0
6.6%
1-1
10.1%
2-2
3.9%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
21.2%
14.7%
Win probability
0.8
Expected goals
0-1
5.2%
1-2
4%
2-3
1%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
10.4%
0-2
2.1%
1-3
1.1%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3.4%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.8%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+6%
-2%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
São Paulo
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Feb. 2016 |
SAO
4 - 0
AGU
89%
8%
3%
|
84 | 59 | 25 | 0 |
| 04 Feb. 2016 |
VAL
1 - 1
SAO
26%
26%
47%
|
84 | 72 | 12 | 0 |
| 30 Jan. 2016 |
RBB
1 - 1
SAO
13%
22%
66%
|
84 | 58 | 26 | 0 |
| 21 Jan. 2016 |
CCP
0 - 1
SAO
41%
26%
33%
|
84 | 78 | 6 | 0 |
| 06 Dec. 2015 |
GOI
0 - 1
SAO
29%
27%
45%
|
84 | 77 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
Univ. César Vallejo
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Feb. 2016 |
VAL
1 - 1
COM
62%
23%
16%
|
72 | 65 | 7 | 0 |
| 04 Feb. 2016 |
VAL
1 - 1
SAO
26%
26%
47%
|
72 | 84 | 12 | 0 |
| 15 Dec. 2015 |
VAL
3 - 0
GAR
46%
26%
28%
|
71 | 72 | 1 | +1 |
| 12 Dec. 2015 |
GAR
1 - 0
VAL
48%
26%
27%
|
71 | 72 | 1 | 0 |
| 09 Dec. 2015 |
VAL
4 - 3
SPC
38%
26%
35%
|
72 | 75 | 3 | -1 |