Paulista vs Fluminense analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
29.6%
Win probability
1.25
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.2%
4-0
0.6%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.8%
3-0
1.9%
4-1
0.9%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
3%
2-0
4.5%
3-1
3%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
8.3%
1-0
7.2%
2-1
7.2%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
17.2%
24.5%
Draw
0-0
5.7%
1-1
11.5%
2-2
5.8%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.5%
45.9%
Win probability
1.61
Expected goals
0-1
9.2%
1-2
9.3%
2-3
3.1%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
22.2%
0-2
7.4%
1-3
5%
2-4
1.3%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
13.9%
0-3
4%
1-4
2%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
6.5%
0-4
1.6%
1-5
0.6%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
2.4%
0-5
0.5%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.7%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Paulista
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Jun. 2005 |
GRE
2 - 1
PAU
50%
25%
26%
|
73 | 72 | 1 | 0 |
| 04 Jun. 2005 |
PAU
2 - 2
UNI
76%
16%
8%
|
73 | 61 | 12 | 0 |
| 01 Jun. 2005 |
CRZ
3 - 2
PAU
77%
15%
9%
|
74 | 84 | 10 | -1 |
| 28 May. 2005 |
SAN
2 - 2
PAU
58%
23%
19%
|
74 | 78 | 4 | 0 |
| 25 May. 2005 |
PAU
3 - 1
CRZ
26%
23%
50%
|
72 | 85 | 13 | +2 |
Matches
Fluminense
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Jun. 2005 |
SAN
1 - 1
FLU
65%
19%
16%
|
83 | 87 | 4 | 0 |
| 01 Jun. 2005 |
CEA
1 - 4
FLU
23%
24%
53%
|
82 | 67 | 15 | +1 |
| 29 May. 2005 |
FLA
0 - 0
FLU
36%
26%
38%
|
83 | 79 | 4 | -1 |
| 25 May. 2005 |
FLU
2 - 2
CEA
77%
15%
8%
|
83 | 67 | 16 | 0 |
| 21 May. 2005 |
FLU
2 - 4
COT
56%
24%
21%
|
83 | 83 | 0 | 0 |