Paganese vs Ilvamaddalena analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
66.3%
Win probability
2.5
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.4%
6-0
0.9%
7-1
0.4%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1.3%
5-0
2.1%
6-1
1%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
3.3%
4-0
4.1%
5-1
2.4%
6-2
0.6%
7-3
0.1%
+4
7.2%
3-0
6.6%
4-1
4.8%
5-2
1.4%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
13.2%
2-0
8%
3-1
7.8%
4-2
2.8%
5-3
0.6%
6-4
0.1%
+2
19.2%
1-0
6.4%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
4.5%
4-3
1.1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.5%
17.6%
Draw
0-0
2.6%
1-1
7.5%
2-2
5.4%
3-3
1.8%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
17.6%
16.1%
Win probability
1.17
Expected goals
0-1
3%
1-2
4.4%
2-3
2.1%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
10.1%
0-2
1.7%
1-3
1.7%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
4.2%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.3%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-38%
-3%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
68
1º
9º
1º
38
3º
17º
13º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
14º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
1º
|
68 | 71 |
1º
|
77% | |
|
2º
|
68 | 68 |
2º
|
77% | |
|
3º
|
56 | 56 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
54 | 55 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
5º
|
50 | 50 |
5º
|
21.5% | |
|
6º
|
47 | 48 |
6º
|
0% | |
|
7º
|
47 | 48 |
7º
|
47% | |
|
8º
|
43 | 44 |
8º
|
60.5% | |
|
9º
|
42 | 43 |
9º
|
34.5% | |
|
10º
|
40 | 41 |
10º
|
32.5% | |
|
11º
|
40 | 41 |
11º
|
25.5% | |
|
12º
|
40 | 40 |
12º
|
56.5% | |
|
|
14º
|
38 | 39 |
13º
|
36% | |
|
13º
|
38 | 38 |
14º
|
36% | |
|
15º
|
36 | 37 |
15º
|
29% | |
|
16º
|
35 | 36 |
16º
|
41% | |
|
17º
|
33 | 34 |
17º
|
49.5% | |
|
18º
|
32 | 33 |
18º
|
61.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
77% | 0% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
23% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 100% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Paganese
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct. 2022 |
POR
1 - 1
PAG
35%
24%
41%
|
38 | 33 | 5 | 0 |
| 09 Oct. 2022 |
PAG
0 - 1
PAL
83%
12%
5%
|
39 | 21 | 18 | -1 |
| 02 Oct. 2022 |
AUR
1 - 1
PAG
18%
20%
62%
|
39 | 25 | 14 | 0 |
| 28 Sep. 2022 |
PAG
3 - 2
ACC
84%
11%
6%
|
39 | 21 | 18 | 0 |
| 18 Sep. 2022 |
CAS
2 - 2
PAG
52%
24%
24%
|
38 | 40 | 2 | +1 |
Matches
Ilvamaddalena
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct. 2022 |
APR
0 - 1
ASI
40%
23%
38%
|
30 | 28 | 2 | 0 |
| 09 Oct. 2022 |
ASI
0 - 1
SOR
42%
23%
35%
|
31 | 34 | 3 | -1 |
| 02 Oct. 2022 |
POR
2 - 3
ASI
59%
20%
22%
|
30 | 34 | 4 | +1 |
| 28 Sep. 2022 |
ASI
1 - 1
PAL
77%
14%
9%
|
30 | 20 | 10 | 0 |
| 18 Sep. 2022 |
ACC
1 - 2
ASI
26%
21%
52%
|
29 | 21 | 8 | +1 |