Newcastle vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
69.3%
Win probability
2.26
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.8%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.1%
5-0
2.2%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
+5
3%
4-0
4.9%
5-1
1.9%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
7%
3-0
8.6%
4-1
4.1%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
+3
13.6%
2-0
11.4%
3-1
7.3%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.7%
1-0
10.1%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
3.1%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.4%
18.1%
Draw
0-0
4.5%
1-1
8.6%
2-2
4.1%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
18.1%
12.6%
Win probability
0.85
Expected goals
0-1
3.8%
1-2
3.6%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
8.8%
0-2
1.6%
1-3
1%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
2.9%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.7%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+3%
+9%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Newcastle
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Dec. 1997 |
BAR
2 - 2
NEW
20%
25%
56%
|
86 | 65 | 21 | 0 |
| 10 Dec. 1997 |
NEW
2 - 0
DYN
57%
22%
21%
|
85 | 85 | 0 | +1 |
| 06 Dec. 1997 |
NEW
0 - 1
ARS
57%
23%
21%
|
86 | 86 | 0 | -1 |
| 01 Dec. 1997 |
BOL
1 - 0
NEW
34%
26%
40%
|
86 | 76 | 10 | 0 |
| 29 Nov. 1997 |
CRY
1 - 2
NEW
26%
26%
48%
|
86 | 72 | 14 | 0 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Dec. 1997 |
BOL
3 - 3
DER
49%
25%
26%
|
78 | 76 | 2 | 0 |
| 06 Dec. 1997 |
DER
2 - 0
WHU
57%
23%
20%
|
77 | 78 | 1 | +1 |
| 29 Nov. 1997 |
CHL
4 - 0
DER
67%
19%
14%
|
78 | 85 | 7 | -1 |
| 22 Nov. 1997 |
DER
3 - 1
COV
58%
23%
20%
|
77 | 76 | 1 | +1 |
| 18 Nov. 1997 |
DER
0 - 1
NEW
38%
27%
36%
|
77 | 86 | 9 | 0 |