Nacional vs Defensor Sporting analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
56.1%
Win probability
1.82
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.3%
4-0
2.7%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.8%
3-0
5.9%
4-1
2.7%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
9.1%
2-0
9.7%
3-1
6%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
17.2%
1-0
10.7%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.1%
22.9%
Draw
0-0
5.9%
1-1
10.9%
2-2
5%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
22.9%
21%
Win probability
1.02
Expected goals
0-1
6%
1-2
5.5%
2-3
1.7%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
13.5%
0-2
3%
1-3
1.9%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
5.4%
0-3
1%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.6%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+34%
+6%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jan. 2010 |
TAC
1 - 1
NAC
22%
26%
52%
|
83 | 66 | 17 | 0 |
| 23 Jan. 2010 |
NAC
3 - 1
CEL
74%
17%
9%
|
83 | 63 | 20 | 0 |
| 13 Dec. 2009 |
CSC
2 - 5
NAC
28%
27%
45%
|
83 | 69 | 14 | 0 |
| 11 Dec. 2009 |
FEN
0 - 1
NAC
26%
27%
47%
|
83 | 67 | 16 | 0 |
| 06 Dec. 2009 |
NAC
3 - 0
PEÑ
47%
25%
29%
|
83 | 83 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Defensor Sporting
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jan. 2010 |
DEF
0 - 1
DAN
54%
23%
23%
|
80 | 75 | 5 | 0 |
| 23 Jan. 2010 |
ATE
3 - 1
DEF
22%
26%
52%
|
80 | 62 | 18 | 0 |
| 13 Dec. 2009 |
DEF
2 - 2
LFC
53%
24%
23%
|
80 | 78 | 2 | 0 |
| 09 Dec. 2009 |
MWA
2 - 2
DEF
38%
27%
36%
|
80 | 74 | 6 | 0 |
| 06 Dec. 2009 |
RIV
1 - 2
DEF
50%
24%
26%
|
80 | 78 | 2 | 0 |