Champions League . Semi-finals
Global 4-5
Milan vs Real Madrid analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
58%
Win probability
2.33
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
0.1%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.4%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.3%
4-0
2.9%
5-1
1.9%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
+4
5.4%
3-0
5%
4-1
4.1%
5-2
1.3%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
10.7%
2-0
6.5%
3-1
7.1%
4-2
2.9%
5-3
0.6%
6-4
0.1%
+2
17.1%
1-0
5.6%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
5%
4-3
1.4%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.2%
19.5%
Draw
0-0
2.4%
1-1
7.8%
2-2
6.4%
3-3
2.3%
4-4
0.5%
5-5
0.1%
0
19.5%
22.5%
Win probability
1.41
Expected goals
0-1
3.4%
1-2
5.5%
2-3
3%
3-4
0.8%
4-5
0.1%
5-6
0%
-1
12.8%
0-2
2.4%
1-3
2.6%
2-4
1.1%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
6.3%
0-3
1.1%
1-4
0.9%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0.1%
-3
2.4%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
0.7%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-2%
+3%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Milan
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Apr. 1956 |
ACM
3 - 3
PRO
81%
12%
8%
|
87 | 59 | 28 | 0 |
| 19 Apr. 1956 |
RMA
4 - 2
ACM
67%
16%
17%
|
87 | 89 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 Apr. 1956 |
FIO
3 - 0
ACM
33%
24%
43%
|
87 | 85 | 2 | 0 |
| 08 Apr. 1956 |
VIC
1 - 3
ACM
17%
21%
62%
|
87 | 71 | 16 | 0 |
| 01 Apr. 1956 |
ACM
3 - 2
GEN
84%
10%
6%
|
87 | 74 | 13 | 0 |
Matches
Real Madrid
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Apr. 1956 |
VCF
2 - 1
RMA
47%
22%
31%
|
89 | 84 | 5 | 0 |
| 19 Apr. 1956 |
RMA
4 - 2
ACM
67%
16%
17%
|
89 | 87 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 Apr. 1956 |
RMA
6 - 0
UDL
86%
9%
5%
|
88 | 73 | 15 | +1 |
| 08 Apr. 1956 |
RMA
3 - 4
SEV
72%
15%
13%
|
89 | 85 | 4 | -1 |
| 01 Apr. 1956 |
VAD
2 - 2
RMA
29%
23%
48%
|
89 | 79 | 10 | 0 |