UEFA Super Cup Final
Global 1-6
Milan vs Ajax analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
64.4%
Win probability
2.47
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.4%
6-0
0.8%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1.2%
5-0
1.9%
6-1
1%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
3.1%
4-0
3.8%
5-1
2.3%
6-2
0.6%
7-3
0.1%
+4
6.8%
3-0
6.2%
4-1
4.7%
5-2
1.4%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
12.6%
2-0
7.5%
3-1
7.6%
4-2
2.9%
5-3
0.6%
6-4
0.1%
+2
18.7%
1-0
6.1%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
4.7%
4-3
1.2%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.5%
18.1%
Draw
0-0
2.5%
1-1
7.5%
2-2
5.7%
3-3
1.9%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
<0%
0
18.1%
17.5%
Win probability
1.23
Expected goals
0-1
3%
1-2
4.6%
2-3
2.4%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
10.7%
0-2
1.9%
1-3
1.9%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
4.7%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
1.6%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-3%
+4%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Milan
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Jan. 1974 |
ACM
1 - 0
TOR
75%
17%
8%
|
89 | 83 | 6 | 0 |
| 30 Dec. 1973 |
LAZ
1 - 0
ACM
24%
27%
50%
|
89 | 81 | 8 | 0 |
| 23 Dec. 1973 |
NAP
1 - 2
ACM
21%
27%
52%
|
89 | 82 | 7 | 0 |
| 16 Dec. 1973 |
ACM
2 - 1
VER
81%
14%
6%
|
89 | 74 | 15 | 0 |
| 12 Dec. 1973 |
BOL
1 - 0
ACM
35%
26%
39%
|
90 | 83 | 7 | -1 |
Matches
Ajax
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Jan. 1974 |
AJA
9 - 0
GRO
90%
7%
3%
|
88 | 67 | 21 | 0 |
| 26 Dec. 1973 |
SPA
1 - 2
AJA
40%
26%
34%
|
88 | 85 | 3 | 0 |
| 23 Dec. 1973 |
AJA
3 - 0
RJC
96%
3%
1%
|
88 | 64 | 24 | 0 |
| 09 Dec. 1973 |
AJA
7 - 2
TEL
88%
9%
4%
|
88 | 72 | 16 | 0 |
| 24 Nov. 1973 |
AJA
4 - 0
GRA
92%
5%
3%
|
88 | 67 | 21 | 0 |