Messancy vs Bastogne analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
59.1%
Win probability
2.11
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1.3%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.9%
4-0
3.1%
5-1
1.5%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
5%
3-0
5.9%
4-1
3.6%
5-2
0.9%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
10.6%
2-0
8.5%
3-1
6.9%
4-2
2.1%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
17.8%
1-0
8%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
4%
4-3
0.8%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.8%
20.6%
Draw
0-0
3.8%
1-1
9.3%
2-2
5.7%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
20.6%
20.3%
Win probability
1.16
Expected goals
0-1
4.4%
1-2
5.4%
2-3
2.2%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0.1%
-1
12.5%
0-2
2.6%
1-3
2.1%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
5.4%
0-3
1%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.8%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+66%
-50%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points